Soopa Soopa

This is most likely my last post before Super Sunday, so I guess I have to do some sort of a prediction/analysis for the game. What's the point though? Everybody and their mother has already given this game to the Colts. After all, the Colts have the Hall of Fame quarterback and the Bears have "the worst Super Bowl QB of all time." The Colts come from the mighty AFC and the Bears played in a conference where an 8-8 team can make the playoffs. The Colts have been knocking on the door for a few years now. This is their year!!

Well, I don't buy it. I mean, I understand the reasoning for the Colts being seven point favorites, but I feel that the media is underestimating the Bears' chances. The number one reason I feel this way is the turnover battle. During the regular season the Colts forced 25 turnovers. The Bears forced 43. The Bears lead the entire NFL by a wide margin. I admit that there is an obvious difference in these two defenses' styles of play and their caliber of opponent. When you are going up against an offense as potentially dominant as the Colts though you need one or both of two things. Ball control on offense and turnovers on defense. The Colts have the type of offense that will move the ball on anybody. In my opinion, the key for the Bears will not only be their ability to force turnovers, but their ability to turn them into points. The Bears have a terribly physical and ball-hawking defense. Once they get their way they are not satisfied. They not only want the ball, but they want to put it in the end zone. I see them forcing three to four turnovers and turning one of those into either a touchdown or providing their offense with extremely good field position.

The other way the Bears are going to make life easier for their offense is through their special teams. Everyone is talking about Devon Hester, the Bears return man. He had something like six return touchdowns this season. He will have a huge impact, but not necessarily through his returns. The Colts have heard for two weeks now how good Hester is. They know they can not stop him through their typical coverage. They are going to have to try different things to contain him. Every punt or kick is going to be to the sidelines. I promise you that either a punt will be muffed to the sideline, or a kick will go out of bounds. If they try to squib it and Hester catches it in stride, then its even worse than kicking it deep. He will get it while the Colt defenders are just crossing the 50 yard line. If they try to pop it up high, then there will be minimal depth, and it will turn out to be not much better than just kicking it out of bounds. Basically he is going to put a ton of pressure on the Colt special teams, a unit that has not played very well this season.

The major negative for the Bears in this game that everyone is talking about is Rex Grossman. There is not much I can say to support him based on fact. In my mind, I think that he is the type of guy who can preform well in this game. I base this on his ability to get hot and not be affected by pressure. There is a chance he totally bombs, but it will not be as a result of too much pressure. I think he is the kind of guy who is calm under pressure, but is so nutty that just makes dumb throws sometimes. Not particularly who I would want on my team, but not a bad guy to have in a big game. Who knows, he could have four picks, or four TDs. Again, there is no factual evidence of this, just my opinion based on his play. Interesting, check these stats...

Grossman 2006 3193 yds 23 TDs 20 INTs
Simms 1986 3487 yds 21 TDs 22 INTs (up until this point in his career he had more INTs than TDs and was though of as "soft" by the NY media)

I'm not saying Grossman is going to turn in Phil Simms, but enough of the talk of him being the "worst" Super Bowl QB. He is not very good, but as we have seen in the past, one game can change a career. Simms had probably greatest performance by a QB in a Super Bowl (22-25 268 Yds 3 TDs 0 INTs). I would be just as shocked as you if Grossman performed that well. I do not think he will have a horrible game though.

Lastly, I think the Bears' pride means something. Not only are they being trashed nationally as inferior to the Colts, but they have been trashed all season in Chicago as inferior to the 1985 Super Bowl team. This means something to me. I think they want to prove to both their fans and the country that they deserve their place in the Super Bowl. They have no pressure, as everyone has already written them off more than once.

I think that the Bears need to make a physical statement early in this game. Smack the Colts in the mouth and see if they respond. If Peyton comes back and throws a TD it could be a long night. I think that it will be a fun game, but the Bears will pull the upset. Peyton will play ok, but not as well as he would like.

Bears 31 Colts 24

Carmelo

I think that this is such a joke. Carmelo has averaged over 20 points per game every year in his career and has gotten better each season. He is leading the league in scoring this season. I am not going to go too crazy because Yao and Boozer will probably not be playing in the game because of injury. If David Stern does not pick Melo as a replacement then he should be embarrassed and the league should be as well. Let's see what happens, but everyone knows that fight or no fight Carmelo deserves to be on the West All-Star team. Period.

All-Stars

Obviously I will have more on this when the game happens, but it is great to see guys like Kobe, KG, Iverson, Duncan, and Shaq on the rosters. They have each been on the team at least seven years. There is something about NBA generations that is interesting to me. These five players (and possible Kidd and T-Mac) represent the the best of our time. Ten years from now we could be saying the same about Lebron, Melo, and Dwight Hoaward (amongst others), just like 10 years ago we were watching Malone, Jordan, and Hakeem on their way out.

STKAFI