The Old Catch 22

In the past five to 10 years, college football has gone through major changes. The BCS was formed, coaches are now paid comparably to the pros, and mid-major schools are now having the opportunities to play in major bowls. Probably the most influential change though is the sudden popularity of NFL style offenses. This change has put speed at a premium and often times put cold weather schools at a disadvantage.

The past four National Title winners and five of the past six are all warm weather schools. The 2002 Ohio St team is the one instance in that time frame when a cold weather team won it all. While Ohio St definitely earned that distinction, to this day many people feel that Miami was the best team that year. In any event, this trend is clear no matter who won in 2002. If you look deeper into these schools, you see that each team had pro-style offenses that were built on tremendous speed. When I say pro-style offense, I mean spreading out wide receivers, screen passes, and double moves. Often times more passing than running, and little to no semblance of the wish bone or option running attack. Up until the mid-1990's college teams often were built on conservative offenses. Speed was less of a necessity.

I am not saying that speed did not exist in the past, or that it was totally unimportant, but coaches are realizing better ways to utilize speed. When players get drafted and go to the NFL, the first thing that they say is so different is the speed of the game. They say that the NFL is just so much faster. Coached such as Urban Meyer, Pete Carroll, Nick Saban and Bobby Petrino have built their offenses on an NFL model. This model is geared towards speed from the skill positions. As a result they target players with speed in recruiting. The players meanwhile like going to play in these offenses because they feel it prepares them better for a potential NFL career. The coaches use the speed to win and the players use the schemes to reach the NFL.

So what does this have to do with warm weather schools? Well, what is something that is guaranteed to nullify speed? Bad weather. If you play a game with high winds, or extreme cold, or rain, or snow, speed is often made futile. If you are going to play at a Notre Dame or a Michigan or Ohio St, chances are that you are going to have to win a game or to in bad weather. If that is the case, you want to have guys that are bigger and stronger to fight through the weather. This was the case in the National Title game. Ohio St.'s defense had mauled the Big 10 all year, yet against Florida it was exposed as painfully slow. Florida swarmed all over the field. Ohio St probably did not see a team that fast all year. The same can be said about the Rose Bowl when Michigan got ambushed by USC. Both of these Big 10 teams that were hyped all season were made to slow and overall inferior.

The cold weather teams are using the NFL type offenses as well, but they do not have the same mentality when it comes to speed as their warmer weather competition. They have to be built to win their conference, or they have no chance at the National Title. While a team like Florida can play great in good weather conditions, I am not sure they would have the same success in Ann Arbor on a November 11 in freezing rain. Of course the cold weather schools do have some speed, but not the depth of it as a USC or an LSU might have. When Ten Ginn Jr. went down with an injury all of the sudden Ohio St. lost its ability to stretch the field.

This need for speed has also spread to the defensive side of the ball. In order for the SEC teams to battle with each other they need to not only put points on the board, but they also need to have the ability to stop their opponents. They not only go after speed in the secondary, but also in the linebackers and even on the defensive line. Floridas' defensive line was consistently in the Ohio St backfield. Their speed was just too much for Ohio St's offensive line to handle.

The question now is "what next?" Teams like Michigan, Ohio St. and Notre Dame aren't going to just disappear. I honestly do not know what the answer is. There has to be a way for these teams to compete against the speed of the SEC, Pac 10 and Big 12. I honestly do not know what the answer is. Maybe they should just copy what these other schools are doing and go all out for speed. As described above though, that could cause potential problems as well.

I would look towards the NFL for answers. Every NFL team has speed. Some have more than others obviously. Guys like Parcells and Belechick have focused their defenses on size and scheme rather than speed though. They have been successful in the NFL for a long time. It would only make sense that college coaches would go to guys like this for advise on how to combat these innovative college offenses.

I know that this theory is a stretch in some eyes, but it is definitely something worth keeping an eye on. Notre Dame, and the Big 10 are two storied college football institutions. Now it seems like they are consistently over-rated. Maybe there is no real reason for this trend, maybe this theory holds weight. Maybe it is just because states like Texas, Florida and California are overflowing with recruiting talent. The fact remains though, that the college football landscape has changed over the past few years. It will be interesting to see if cold weather teams adjust and take over again, or if this goes from a trend to a college football staple.

Football Picks:

NFC
Seattle (+9 1/2 ) over Chicago....I think Chicago will win, but that is a lot of points in the NFC. If the Bears lose, Grossman should be lookin for a job. The fans of Chicago hate him more than Giant fans do Tommy Coughlin.

Saints (-5 1/2) over Eagles...The Saint are just so tough at home. Not to mention their offense is incredible. I am not trying to disrespect the Eagles, but the Saints are rested and the Superdome will be electric.

Ravens (-4 1/2) over Colts....I never like picking against Peyton Manning, but I also don't like this match-up for him. I would not underestimate the fans emotion considering the Colts franchise left Baltimore in 1984 in a very controversial manner. Plus in potentially bad weather I will stick with McNair, who is a warrior.

Patriots (+4 1/2) over Chargers....I am just stickin with my boys Brady and Belechick. The Chargers are extremely explosive, but they also have a coach who never wins in the postseason. I am not sold on Phillip Rivers in a big spot as well.

Pete Carroll

Smurph and Relaxo were goin on yesterday about Pete Carroll and the NFL. While he definitely was not a bigtime head coach in the NFL, I would not call him a failure either. I think the he got a raw deal with the Jets (one season then fired for Rich Kottite). He was average with the Patriots (one playoff and a 27-21 record). He obviously is a tremendous college coach. I would be wary of giving him full control of a team and seven million dollars a year in the NFL though. He is a very unique case, but I would not say that his time in the NFL was a failure. I would say that he was decent, and considering his college success deserves another shot at it. With that being said, I am glad his name has not been floated relating to the Giants job.

Becks

Wow. I don't understand $250 million to a guy who plays a sport that no one in the US cares about, but I like it. I am down to go to my first Metrostars game when the Galaxy come to town....who's comin wit me?

FYI...I wrote most of this yesterday, and I am too hungover to proofread it..

Hey Realxo.....http://www.nydailynews.com/sports/story/487923p-410855c.html

Lastly....http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/news/story?id=2728273 ...Insert fat joke here

STKAFI