Now or (Almost) Never

Losing in the final round of a playoff, whether it is the Super Bowl, World Series, or NBA Finals is always tough for a ballclub. After putting months of time and effort into a season, finishing second is often the most bitter pill to swallow. There are two common reactions the following season to this scenario. One is to begin the following season in a haze so to speak, never get your game to the same consistent level as the season before and end finishing up worse than the season prior. The other scenario (often in younger teams) is to use that experience of the year before as a spring board to storm through the regular season and either win it all, or come close once again. This is often seen in both the NBA and MLB, but not in the NFL.

Since the Buffalo Bills lost Super Bowl XXVIII to the Cowboys, a Super Bowl loser has not returned to the big game in at least five years. In that same period, this has happened twice in the NBA and four times in Major League Baseball. Some might say this is just random and does not mean much. I do not agree. In the fifteen years prior to Super Bowl XXVIII, the losing team in the Super Bowl returned in less that five years on three different occasions (Skins, Broncos and Bills). The rates were consistent over the past 30 years for both the NBA and MLB.

One potential reason for this the new collective bargaining agreement for the NFL in 1992. This was groundbreaking for the league. A hard salary cap was instituted, along with the advent of free agency and tremendous TV revenue sharing. Teams had more and equal money to spend, but it was increasingly tougher to keep great teams together. Free agency and the gradual rise in salaries decreased the chances of the great dynasties of teams from the past. While there is some evidence of this, there is no correlation with teams that have won the Super Bowl. In the past 15 years, four teams (Cowboys, Packers, Broncos, Patriots) have won a Super and returned a year or two later to play in it again.

The real reason in my mind is the development of the Super Bowl itself. It is hard to believe, but the Super Bowl was not nearly the spectacle it is today 20 years ago. It was still a big deal, but there was not two weeks in between the championship games and Super Bowl Sunday, there was not "Media Day", the commercial craze was not at this level, and the halftime show/pregame festivites had not reached its peak of today. Basically, the Super Bowl has developed into much more of a circus. The 1990's are where this change can be seen clearest.

When a team reaches the Super Bowl, it has to deal with an event that it has never come close to dealing with before. There is nothing that a team can do to truly prepare for the enormity of Super Bowl week. The distractions off the field are plentiful, and the game itself is very different as well. The TV timeouts are more rapid and longer than in a regular game. The halftime show is twice as long. The pregame festivities are longer, and the crowd is truly bipartisan. Nothing about the game itself has any fluidity or regularity to it.

Different coaches have different philosophies on how to treat their players during Super Bowl week. Some choose to give them more freedom and let them relax, while some want them locked up in their rooms, away from the distractions. There is really no standard protocol on how to treat your team. Some players react better to certain tactics, some don't. The winner always looks great, while the loser is left to question itself.

The bottom line about what the Super Bowl has become is an event that is hyped more than any game of the year, and then it is over in the blink of an eye. It feels like football being played within a party or concert. The winning team feels great, but the losing team feels much worse than after a normal loss. The entire season is over, and the game probably feels just like a blur within a crazy week. Something like graduation after senior week. All of this craziness, and then its over before you realize.

While it is tough to come back the next season after losing in the finals in both the NBA and MLB, it is different for two reasons. For one, while they both are surrounded by hoopla, it is nothing close to the Super Bowl. Number two is that the Super Bowl is one game. It over and done with in one night. A series can last a week and the players have the time to understand what they are playing and take it all in properly. The shock of losing is not quite as sudden.

I have always said that in football you have to start the season with the aim of making the Super Bowl. You can't think of winning it until you are there, because too much weird and new stuff happens. A Super Bowl loss though can really effect a franchise in a negative way. Its tougher to quantify what happens in the subsequent seasons, but something about losing the game in this age of Super Bowl hysteria has had a lasting effect. I doubt Lovie, Peyton, Rex, and the rest of the players and coaches competing on Sunday are thinking like this. The one thing they must realize though is if you lose, this could the only chance you get. Below are the NBA Finals, World Series and Super Bowl competitors for the past 15 years. Teams who returned in less than five years in bold...


Super Bowls

Winners Losers

XXVIII Cowboys Bills
XXIX Niners Chargers
XXX Cowboys Steelers
XXXI Packers Patriots
XXXII Broncos Packers
XXXIII Broncos Falcons
XXXIV Rams Titans
XXXV Ravens Giants
XXXVI Patriots Rams
XXXVII Bucs Raiders
XXXVIII Patriots Panthers
XXXIX Patriots Eagles
XL Steelers Seahawks


World Series

1993 Blue Jays Phillies
1995 Braves* Indians
1996 Yankees Braves
1997 Marlins Indians
1998 Yankees Padres
1999 Yankees Braves
2000 Yankees Mets
2001 D’Backs Yankees
2002 Angels Giants
2003 Marlins Yankees
2004 Red Sox Cardinals
2005 White Sox Astros
2006 Cardinals Tigers


NBA Finals

1993 Bulls Suns
1994 Rockets Knicks
1995 Rockets Magic
1996 Bulls Sonics
1997 Bulls Jazz
1998 Bulls Jazz
1999 Spurs Knicks
2000 Lakers Pacers
2001 Lakers Sixers
2002 Lakers Nets
2003 Spurs Nets
2004 Pistons Lakers
2005 Spurs Pistons
2006 Heat Mavs

*The Braves had lost the 1991 and 1992 World Series before winning in 1995...
STKAFI (Free Kobe!!!)