Blink

I recently finished reading Blink by Malcolm Gladwell. It was published a couple years ago and has received a ton of notoriety since then. In a nutshell, the book analyzes a different approach to solving problems. This approach is geared towards maximizing your subconscious thoughts and not consciously over-thinking problems. According to Gladwell, our most educated solutions are very likely to be derived within a few seconds of being presented with a problem. Professionally, this type of approach can only be used with an expert in any given field. For example, my instincts towards spotting a potential mugger are much less likely to be correct than a policeman's initial subconscious in this matter. He goes on to judge this theory in many different areas, most of which relate to all of us. Obviously, you can tell that I enjoyed this book. Why is this in any way relevant to anything that I ever write about in this blog, you ask? After reading this book, it is clear to me that quarterback is a classic example of "Blink" or as Gladwell also puts it, thin slicing.

Football is known, besides the violence, for having a tremendous amount of practice and film preparation. There are hours of film study to go along with hundreds of repetitions each week to prepare for a game. The quarterback is involved in every single offensive play, thus he is often the most intense during preparation. After the players leave the huddle and a play is called it is the QBs' responsibility to look at the defense and decide if that play is appropriate or not, considering what the defense is showing. It is also the QBs' responsibility to call out to his linemen where certain blitzes may be coming from and where certain defensive players are lined up. Once the ball is snapped though, the QB has usually about three seconds to process everything from the film study, to the reps, to what he just saw in the defense, to what the defense is actually doing. He has three seconds to manufacture all of that in his head and make a play with the ball.

When a QB is drafted he is examined in every way possible. From his arm strength, to his touch, to his intelligence, to his leadership abilities. In my mind, the most important aspect of a QB is his thin-slicing ability. This is something that can only be seen on the field, in a game situation. If a player has these other attributes, it may make his thin slicing ability easier, since he can make more potential plays on the field with his arm strength or mobility, but it by no means guarantees it. That is why drafting a QB is such a difficult and imperfect science.

When you look at the QBs in the league, two stand out Tom Brady and Peyton Manning. They both have "plus" arms, show great touch, are considered extremely intelligent, are meticulous at preparation and are driven leaders. Their "blink" abilities are what put them at another level though. They are able to hike a football and process all of the information in their mind in an unconscious way where they are not thinking. While they think they are just reacting to the play, their subconscious is really processing everything and allowing them to make the right decisions.

The reason that I am bringing this topic up now is two fold. One is that these two players will be facing off this Sunday in Indianapolis. The other is that the Playoffs are the most pressure a NFL player will face and this is where thin-slicing is most important. Gladwell mentions in his book that under tremendous pressure our thin-slicing abilities can malfunction. It is tough for me to explain, but basically our heart rate can reach such a high level, that we become temporarily autistic, even for just a few seconds. In this time period our subconscious does not process decisions correctly, and we suffer as a result.

When looking at Peyton Mannings' career, one might say that he suffers from this in the postseason. In the regular season he is as cool as a cucumber and is able to "react" calmly on the field. In the postseason, he gets so riled up that his subconscious does not perform at the same high level that he is accustomed to. Tom Brady on the other hand has been legendary in the clutch and the postseason. He has led game winning drives with less than two minutes left in two Super Bowls, in addition to numerous other pressure performances. Last week though, he did not play well and made a number of poor decisions. The types of decisions that we are used to seeing Manning make in the postseason and not Brady.

I was listening to an interview with Phil Simms this week on the radio and his descriptions sounded very similar to the type of actions that Gladwell describes. Simms was asked about the pressure on a QB and if they feel it. Simms said that he never felt it and he did not think it existed. He continued by saying that throughout his career, if he threw an interception and he was asked as he got to the sideline why he threw it he would not know. It was like his his body was just reacting to the play, and not until he saw the play on film could he remember what was going on in his head and why he made the throw. The speed of the game was too quick for him to feel the pressure consciously.

I am not going to get wrapped up in his view on pressure. What does interest me though is his description of a play on the field. The quickness of it and how he reacted so fast that he could not tell you his thought process directly after the play was finished. This is exactly the type of feeling that Gladwell describes in his book. Who knows what will happen this week in Indy, and who knows why Manning and Brady both played so poorly last week? What I think, is that every player is human and can have a bad game every once in a while. I honestly feel though that in the postseason environment, Brady has an edge on Manning. Brady, even when he makes a bad play, seems in control, while Manning seems to be searching for answers. Who knows which will win this week, but for this one game, in this environment, it seems that Brady has the better chance of succeeding. In a Playoff environment, he appears to be able to thin-slice at a consistently higher level than Manning or any other QB in the league.

Again, I recommend this book. While you may not agree with it, it definitely is thought-provoking, especially for a sports fan. More specifically, the never-ending debate over who is and is not clutch. In the bigtime, playoff situation some players naturally have the correct "blink" reaction (Derek Jeter, Brady, Michael Jordan) and some continually suffer with that "temporary autism", as Gladwell puts it (Patrick Ewing, Jeff Vanderjagt, Armando Benitez, Chirs Webber). The question though, is can a player overcome this, and become "clutch"? For all of you Manning and AROD fans, you better hope so...

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