Tuesday, January 30, 2007

Now or (Almost) Never

Losing in the final round of a playoff, whether it is the Super Bowl, World Series, or NBA Finals is always tough for a ballclub. After putting months of time and effort into a season, finishing second is often the most bitter pill to swallow. There are two common reactions the following season to this scenario. One is to begin the following season in a haze so to speak, never get your game to the same consistent level as the season before and end finishing up worse than the season prior. The other scenario (often in younger teams) is to use that experience of the year before as a spring board to storm through the regular season and either win it all, or come close once again. This is often seen in both the NBA and MLB, but not in the NFL.

Since the Buffalo Bills lost Super Bowl XXVIII to the Cowboys, a Super Bowl loser has not returned to the big game in at least five years. In that same period, this has happened twice in the NBA and four times in Major League Baseball. Some might say this is just random and does not mean much. I do not agree. In the fifteen years prior to Super Bowl XXVIII, the losing team in the Super Bowl returned in less that five years on three different occasions (Skins, Broncos and Bills). The rates were consistent over the past 30 years for both the NBA and MLB.

One potential reason for this the new collective bargaining agreement for the NFL in 1992. This was groundbreaking for the league. A hard salary cap was instituted, along with the advent of free agency and tremendous TV revenue sharing. Teams had more and equal money to spend, but it was increasingly tougher to keep great teams together. Free agency and the gradual rise in salaries decreased the chances of the great dynasties of teams from the past. While there is some evidence of this, there is no correlation with teams that have won the Super Bowl. In the past 15 years, four teams (Cowboys, Packers, Broncos, Patriots) have won a Super and returned a year or two later to play in it again.

The real reason in my mind is the development of the Super Bowl itself. It is hard to believe, but the Super Bowl was not nearly the spectacle it is today 20 years ago. It was still a big deal, but there was not two weeks in between the championship games and Super Bowl Sunday, there was not "Media Day", the commercial craze was not at this level, and the halftime show/pregame festivites had not reached its peak of today. Basically, the Super Bowl has developed into much more of a circus. The 1990's are where this change can be seen clearest.

When a team reaches the Super Bowl, it has to deal with an event that it has never come close to dealing with before. There is nothing that a team can do to truly prepare for the enormity of Super Bowl week. The distractions off the field are plentiful, and the game itself is very different as well. The TV timeouts are more rapid and longer than in a regular game. The halftime show is twice as long. The pregame festivities are longer, and the crowd is truly bipartisan. Nothing about the game itself has any fluidity or regularity to it.

Different coaches have different philosophies on how to treat their players during Super Bowl week. Some choose to give them more freedom and let them relax, while some want them locked up in their rooms, away from the distractions. There is really no standard protocol on how to treat your team. Some players react better to certain tactics, some don't. The winner always looks great, while the loser is left to question itself.

The bottom line about what the Super Bowl has become is an event that is hyped more than any game of the year, and then it is over in the blink of an eye. It feels like football being played within a party or concert. The winning team feels great, but the losing team feels much worse than after a normal loss. The entire season is over, and the game probably feels just like a blur within a crazy week. Something like graduation after senior week. All of this craziness, and then its over before you realize.

While it is tough to come back the next season after losing in the finals in both the NBA and MLB, it is different for two reasons. For one, while they both are surrounded by hoopla, it is nothing close to the Super Bowl. Number two is that the Super Bowl is one game. It over and done with in one night. A series can last a week and the players have the time to understand what they are playing and take it all in properly. The shock of losing is not quite as sudden.

I have always said that in football you have to start the season with the aim of making the Super Bowl. You can't think of winning it until you are there, because too much weird and new stuff happens. A Super Bowl loss though can really effect a franchise in a negative way. Its tougher to quantify what happens in the subsequent seasons, but something about losing the game in this age of Super Bowl hysteria has had a lasting effect. I doubt Lovie, Peyton, Rex, and the rest of the players and coaches competing on Sunday are thinking like this. The one thing they must realize though is if you lose, this could the only chance you get. Below are the NBA Finals, World Series and Super Bowl competitors for the past 15 years. Teams who returned in less than five years in bold...


Super Bowls

Winners Losers

XXVIII Cowboys Bills
XXIX Niners Chargers
XXX Cowboys Steelers
XXXI Packers Patriots
XXXII Broncos Packers
XXXIII Broncos Falcons
XXXIV Rams Titans
XXXV Ravens Giants
XXXVI Patriots Rams
XXXVII Bucs Raiders
XXXVIII Patriots Panthers
XXXIX Patriots Eagles
XL Steelers Seahawks


World Series

1993 Blue Jays Phillies
1995 Braves* Indians
1996 Yankees Braves
1997 Marlins Indians
1998 Yankees Padres
1999 Yankees Braves
2000 Yankees Mets
2001 D’Backs Yankees
2002 Angels Giants
2003 Marlins Yankees
2004 Red Sox Cardinals
2005 White Sox Astros
2006 Cardinals Tigers


NBA Finals

1993 Bulls Suns
1994 Rockets Knicks
1995 Rockets Magic
1996 Bulls Sonics
1997 Bulls Jazz
1998 Bulls Jazz
1999 Spurs Knicks
2000 Lakers Pacers
2001 Lakers Sixers
2002 Lakers Nets
2003 Spurs Nets
2004 Pistons Lakers
2005 Spurs Pistons
2006 Heat Mavs

*The Braves had lost the 1991 and 1992 World Series before winning in 1995...
STKAFI (Free Kobe!!!)

Monday, January 29, 2007

(Marvelous?) Marvin

During the AFC Championship Game I said something that riled a few people up. The words I used exactly were "Marvin Harrison is overrated." Obviously I was wasted and rooting for the Patriots at the time. Everyone got so up in arms about it that I might as well shut up, even though I knew Harrison had never came up big when the Colts needed it in the playoffs. Afterwards, I researched Harrison and a few other relevant receivers and found the information I was looking for. Harrison is having a Hall of Fame career, but he has continually not shown up when the playoffs rolled around. Up until this Super Bowl, one might sat he is the receiver equivalent of the quarterback that has thrown him the majority of his touchdown passes.

What would you define as overrated? In my mind there are two main examples of an athlete being overrated. One is the old cliche of a player continually is considered to be underrated by so many people, that he/she is thus overrated. When I proclaimed that Harrison was overrated, I was met with responses of how he was underrated. Harrison has been overshadowed by contemporaries such as Randy Moss and Terrell Owens, receivers with similar statistics that run their mouths much more in the press. As a result, the "cool" thing to do these days in the media is to label Harrison as underrated compared to these loud mouth receivers that receive more attention than quiet Harrison.

The other common example of an overrated player is someone who puts up a bunch of great numbers, but does not show that same production in the most important of situations and games. While I can not give every example from regular season games where Harrison made a great catch, I have a good sample size (13 games) of Harrisons' production, or lack there of, in the playoffs. Below is a comparison of Harrison and his contemporaries, as well as other top receivers from the past 25 years.

Player Gms Catches Yds/gm TDs 100yd gms
Marvin Harrison 13 55 59.7 2 1
Randy Moss 8 35 90.4 9 3
Terrell Owens 10 50 70 4 3
Torry Holt 10 47 63 4 2
Hines Ward 10 57 76.1 8 4
Jerry Rice 28 151 80.2 22 8
Cris Carter 14 63 61.4 8 2
Michael Irvin 16 87 82.1 8 6

The numbers pretty much speak for themselves. Now you can blame Harrisons' QB if you want. We all know the playoff problems that he has had. The fact remains though that Harrison has the worst numbers of any of these receivers, with a couple dwarfing him. Not only that, but almost every other guy listed has a signature moment in the postseason. Most noticeably, Hines Ward and Jerry Rice each have Super Bowl MVPs, while Owens had a legendary Super Bowl effort in a losing cause. Maybe Harrison is waiting for the Super Bowl to show his true playoff greatness...

Maybe I am totally of base. Maybe Harrison is not "overrated", but instead just not "clutch." All I know is that I do not care about the numbers that a player on my team puts up. I never cared about Michael Strahan breaking (if you call it that) the season sack record. I cared about Strahan sacking Trent Dilfer in Super Bowl XXXIV. If I am a Colt fan, this game is where guys like Harrison and Manning define their careers. The numbers are great on paper and fun to watch, but the Super Bowl is where they will be remembered.

Bring on the hate....All I know is that in a big spot, I would rather have any one of those guys split out wide over Marvin. Show me something this Sunday and I can change my tune....

STKAFI

Sunday, January 28, 2007

Who's the Man?

I was going to write a post comparing Tiger Woods and Roger Federer. This was a big weekend for both of them. Tiger extended his PGA Tour win streak to seven consecutive tournaments, while Federer won his third consecutive Grand Slam and his sixth out of the past seven. They are both on remarkable runs and deserve all of the attention that they are each getting.

Comparing the two is a lot of fun, but it leads to nowhere. There is no way that anyone can convince me that one is more dominant at his respective sport than the other. The reason that it is a fun topic to debate is because they each have such amazing statistics to back up their case. The negatives for each player are so few and are so tough to magnify enough to compare them to the strengths.

I enjoy watching and playing both tennis and golf. I would have to say though that my loyalty resides with tennis. I played a lot when I was younger and I started watching it at a much younger age than golf. Again, I will make it clear that I think Woods and Federer are on the same level, but I am more sensitive to Federers' case. I feel like he does not get the full respect and attention he deserves. There are two reasons for this. One is that he plays a sports that is not tremendously popular in the U.S. Golf is much more popular that tennis, in participation, TV ratings and gate attendance. As a result the media puts more attention to the sports, and as a result Tiger. The other reason is that Tiger is from the US, while Federer is from Switzerland. It is natural for the US born player to get more attention from the US media. In any event, slowly but surely Federer is beginning to get the attention that he deserves to the the remarkable things that he is doing on the court.

ESPN.com decided to have two of their writers each compose a short blurb about why Tiger is better and why Federer is better. The reason I bring this up is because I think that Jason Sobel (case for Tiger) wrote one of the more horrendous pieces that I have ever seen. He showed a lack of a basic concept of comparison across sports. Here is the link for reference...

http://sports.espn.go.com/golf/news/story?id=2746501

When comparing different sports, you have to acknowledge the difference in sports from the beginning and debate under those constraints. For instance, in baseball a good batting average is .300 or better. That means a batter is getting a hit 30% of his at-bats. In basketball, a good field goal percentage is 50%, meaning a player makes 50% of his shots taken. From the beginning of the argument, it has to be recognized that this type of disparity of stats makes these sports different. Whether one is harder than the other means nothing. You have to compare the individuals' level of dominance within the sport to the other athletes' level of dominance within their sport.

Sobel basically just makes the case that Federer faces one player per match, while Tiger goes up against 155. This argument is so ridiculous. If he wants to twist the circumstances like this, then I will say that Federer has to win every single match he plays. He does not have the ability to be down six strokes after one round (like Tiger was in the Buick Invitational). If that was the case, Federer would be eliminated in the first round. The argument I am making is just as crazy as Sobels' though. The bottom line is that Tiger is in his own world when it comes to golf. He has 12 Majors (18 is the all time record) and he is only 31. He has potentially about 15 more years of performance at or close to his prime. Federer has 10 Grand Slams (14 is the all time record) and he is only 25. He has potentially about six more years at or close to his prime. Both players should destroy these records.

Crazy Stats for each...

Tiger
Won each major twice
Won the "Tiger Slam" (held each Major at the same time, but not in same year)
Won seven consecutive PGA Tour tournaments (and counting...)
77 career tournament wins

Federer
First player to three-peat at the US Open and Wimbledon in the same three year span
Made the Finals of seven consecutive Grand Slams (and counting...)
Won 46 career titles
A record of 254-15 since the beginning of 2004

Federer has not won the French Open yet, which is the only blemish on his record. When comparing him to the other all-time tennis greats though, this is common (John McEnroe, Jimmy Connors and Pete Sampras never won the French, Bjorn Borg never won the US Open). I could get into more depth about this, but again, I think an argument is on this is dumb. Both are great athletes and these might be the two best we see in our lifetime.

Other notes
  • Some people hate on Rafael Nadal (only won on clay) and Phil Mickleson (man boobs), but you have to respect the fact that each have won multiple Majors within these great runs of both Tiger and Federer. Nadal and Mickelson have had the unfortunate luck of their primes coinciding with possibly the greatest players of all time in their sports. What these guys are doing will always be underrated. Mickelson might have more prime left than Nadal considering that golfers have a longer shelf-life and small tennis playes peak early in their careers (Michael Chang, Leyton Hewitt, etc).
  • Great performance by Jamal Crawford on Friday night in the Garden. It was fun to be there and watch, but it still bothered me. Its not like he was taking better shots than usual. He was still taking the same idiotic shots, but they just happened to be going in. Last night he started the game 1-9 from the field.
  • Everyone is doubting the Spurs, but they are still playing .650 ball...
  • One good thing for the Bears...the Super Bowl will be outdoors and on grass..
  • Happy belated birfday Relaxo..
  • Helton to the Red Sox would leave them a little heavy on lefties right? Manny is the best right handed hitter in the AL, but what about when his "knee" acts up midway through the season...Still worth it for the Sox though..

STKAFI

Thursday, January 25, 2007

G.O.A.T.

For the past few years Peyton Manning has been putting up ridiculous numbers. He has routinely ripped off 30 TD, 3-1 TD to INT ratios, 4,000 yards, 65% completion percentages, and 12 win seasons. It really has been an amazing run. His one downfall, and it is a glaring one, has been his inability to perform in the playoffs. It was such a deficiency, that in any argument concerning Peytons' place in history, I could always being that up and shut the other person up. The Quarterback position is the one in all of sports where winning a championship means the most. While great players at other positions can get a pass when it comes to a title, QB gets none. To be brief, the reason for this is basically that if the QB plays well enough then the team is always going to at least have a chance to win. The same can not be said for a wide receiver, a defensive end, or even a running back. In other sports there is no position that is so clearly the figurehead of every team, with the exception of possibly the goalie in hockey.

Back to my initial thought. If Peyton wins on February 4th, instead of the old Brady/Manning argument, the more popular one amongst fans, friends and "experts" will be is Peyton the greatest of all time. If he loses, he will still have a greater respect from his critics as a result of beating the Patriots, but he will still lack the championship he needs to be in the argument of the greatest QB of all time. I know this is premature because even if Manning wins, Brady could win a couple more and then this debate will reach even higher levels. All I am saying though is that, all these years of being able to say Manning has never won anything in his life besides personal accolades unfortunately may be over.

As you can tell I will be rooting for the Bears in the Super Bowl. I don't know why I dislike Manning. Maybe its because he is so much better than his little brother. Maybe it is because I like the dynamic of him being the stat guy and Brady being the winner. Oh, maybe its the fact that when Manning loses he throws everyone else under the bus instead of himself (his O-line, defensive guys holding, etc). OK, I will stop with that. Anyway, we will see next Sunday, but I am preparing myself to not have a rebuttal for all the Manning lovers. At least until next years playoffs....haha.

FYI....I will not do anymore Super Bowl stuff until mid-next week. It gets ridiculous.

The Kid

His name is Roger Federer. I do not care what anyone else says. He is on the same level of dominance as Tiger Woods. I will have more on him after he wins the Australian Open over the weekend.

Willie Ball

Glad to see Willie Randolph is getting an extension from the Mets. I did not want to see this drag into spring training. I was not in love with Willie from the beginning, but I thought he did a good job in the playoffs. He deserves this and I am happy he will be around longer.

Darfur

I went to a fundraising event last night for Darfur. Here is the link if you wanna help out...
http://www.helpdarfurnow.org/

STKAFI

Wednesday, January 24, 2007

The Tele

I can honestly say that DVR has changed my life. About a year ago I moved out of my parents place where we had the same cable system for the past 10 years. Not only is is not digital cable, but we had it because there was a deal within our building. This happens plenty in NYC, where a specific cable company will give a reduced rate to specific buildings with the hope of getting the majority of potential cable customers from there. In any event, while many of my friends were started to get TIVO and DVR and digital cable, I was stuck on this old cable provider. When I moved into my new place, my roommate and I each got LCD/HD TVs, and we purchased the most expensive cable package there is, including DVR and HD. After my lull of about five years where I pretty much just watched HBO, MTV, and sports I was now open to a whole new world.

Now I can honestly say that my DVR is consistently packed with shows I love to watch. They include everything from new episodes of current faves (24, Scrubs), reruns of old classics (West Wing, 90210) and random events that we make sure to label as save until manually delete (Victoria Secret Fashion Show, Journey: Classic in Concert). The best part about DVR though is definitely the ability to keep up to date on my current crop of shows. Below is the list of them. Understand that they refelct not only a 23 year old male, but also a kid that grew up with two older sisters and as a result was watching 90210, Melrose Place, and Real World as early as the third grade. Anyway, here they are (in no particular order):

Scrubs
The Office
24
Grey's Anatomy
What About Brian
American Idol

In addition, I periodically have other shows in the DVR such as Desperate Housewives and My Name is Earl. Looking at this list it is interesting to see the distribution of networks on this list. NBC has the comedies, ABC has the corny/feminine shows, and FOX has the action/entertainment. There are reasons for my interest in each show, but the one I will elaborate on is the one most popular with this group I presume......24.

There are three major things that draw me to 24. First and foremost is Jack Bauer. The man (if you can call him mortal) is a true gangster. We have seen him fake his own death, kill massive amounts of people, torture people in the most bad ass ways, receive incredible amounts of torture, and have the greatest instincts of any terror fighting American in history. He is truly a TV character that will live in infamy.

Another important aspect to 24 is its relevance to society. While many of the story lines are ridiculous (more on this), they are based in a topic that is on everybodys minds in the world today; terrorism. Ever since 9/11, terror has been the #1 topic of politicians and as a guy living in NYC, it is still a relevant fear/thought in all of us. 24 is not only about terrorism and its prevention, but it lays out the paradoxes that our government faces. Issues that are true in real life as well, such as just case, aggression, and human rights. While 24 often goes to extents not seen in the real world, the basic dilemmas that the show confronts is something that hits home for a lot of average citizens and government officials.

The often ridiculous levels that 24 goes to is also a reason for watching the show. The absolute absurdity that this all happens in one day, combined with the perpetual bad luck of Jack Bauer and the tremendous amount of pain he receives/dishes out often reaches humorous levels. That craziness, plus characters such a the constantly conflicted Cloe make 24 not only an action adventure, but also a supplier of consistent laughs.

Random DVR note:

I am very pumped to DVR the Federer/Roddick semifinal match from the Australian Open. I remember when I was younger trying to set my alarm to wake up for an Andre Agassi match in Australia and sleeping right through it. This time I plan to wake up and watch this potential classic before work so the result is not ruined. Plus, I can fast forward to the key parts of the match. Oh, DVR...
  • I have not really gotten into Prison Break. I know a bunch of people are really into it though..
  • So far I would saw I like the Arizona Cardinals as the best chance for immediate success with their new head coach. They have a ton of young offensive talent and are bringing in a guy in Wisenhunt that coached under Bill Cowher in Pittsburgh and he is bringing along with him Russ Grimm, who was also a bigtime assistant in Pittsburgh. Cohesion within the coaching staff is an under-rated aspect to success in a new coach. Wisenhunt seems to be building the kind of staff that he wants so far...
  • The Raiders are still in a lot of trouble. Before I believe in them, changes need to come from the top. Al Davis needs to pull back a little and let people do their jobs before he jumps down their throat. An interesting and random part of the Bellichick book was the part about Al Davis. The book on him is that he is constantly evaluating his coaches, fornt office, players, etc. No like your typical team, but instead on a daily basis instead of over a longer period of time. Unless there is a strong enough head coach in there to keep some sort of reins on Davis, this constant pressure from the owner causes many players, coaches, etc to wilt and their performance drops continuously...
  • The Knicks are in big trouble with the Suns comin to town and Marbury likely sittin the game out...

    STKAFI

Tuesday, January 23, 2007

Glad You Brought This Up...

I was not thinking of this because I am not sold on him being done, but the Parcells legacy and his place in history is a fascinating one. He is one of an exclusive group to win more than one Super Bowl, as well as part of an exclusive group of bringing more than one franchise to the Super Bowl. He is arguably considered the greatest head coach in the history of both the Jets and the Giants. He also won his last Super Bowl in 1990-1991, and brought as much controversy as winning to his coaching spots post-Giants. His least impressive job was without a doubt the Cowboys, which has to be considered unsuccessful. Even for the a guy not named Parcells, this job would not be praised. In the pantheon of NFL coaches, Parcells is up there but without a doubt behind a few.

I will rank him against Bellichick, Shanahan, Holmgren, Walsh, Gibbs, Levy, Seifert, Johnson.

1. Bill Bellichik
2. Bill Walsh
3. Bill Parcells
4. Joe Gibbs
5. Mike Holmgren
6. Mike Shanahan
7. George Seifert
8. Marv Levy

Bellichick and Walsh are on a level of their own. Each have three Super Bowls and are known as "geniuses" and innovators (Walsh-offense, Bellichick-defense).

I rank Parcells over Gibbs for a couple of reasons. From the time Parcells entered the NFL as a head coach until this season, every season that the two of them were head coaches at the same time, they were in the NFC East together. Thus their head to head record means a lot. Parcells has a 14-9 record against Gibbs. In addition, two of Gibbs wins came in Parcells first season where his team won only three games total, and two other came in the strike season of 1987 when the Skins won it all and the Giants struggled immensely with replacement players. In their one postseason match-up the Giants were victorious in the 1986-87 NFC title game.

I have Parcells over the rest for many differing reasons. This is truly a great debate. One thing I will concede to any opposition is that Parcells and his legacy may be over-rated due to the fact that he coached a majority of his career in New York.

Oh....and I love the Melo/AI connection. The West is soooo nasty though, who know how far they can go....?

STKAFI
Nice Input

I liked what I heard on the Patriot hate. Two points stood out for me, in that I should have realized them from the beginning. Number one is that it is lonely at the top. No matter who the team or person is there are always going to be people trying to bring them down. If not now, then at some point in the future. The other point I thought was very valid was the difference between envy and hate. There are definitely a lot of people out there that are envious of the success, and don't really dislike the Pats themselves. There are people out there that are more than envious though and actually dislike the team though. I think it is a combo of both, with envy being the stronger emotion at work. This would be directly connected with the "its lonely at the top" point as well.

As far as the Yankee comparison, I see one glaring difference that makes these two franchises so different. The NFL has a hard salary cap and Major League Baseball does not have a salary cap at all. As a result, the Yankees are free spenders and the Patriots are probably the most fiscally responsible team in the NFL. I am not trying to rip the Yankees on this, but my point is this. There are a lot of fans throughout the country that are envious of the Yankees success. There are also a lot of fans out there that don't see the MLB as having a true level playing field. The Yankees have the ability to spend more money than any team in baseball, and spend a ridiculous amount more than teams like the Pirates, Royals and others. The Pats though operate in a system where their economic strength does not place them on such a higher ground than the other teams. In the end, the winning is what creates the majority of the ill will towards these two franchises. After all if the Yankees did not win they would just be the Knicks (New York team that spends a ton and is a loser). What I am trying to say is that the Yankees are hated for their spending and envied for their winning. The Pats are envied for their winning, but I do not see that lightening rod issue of hate related to them like spending is with the Yankees.

Note: I am not trying to say teams like the Mets and Red Sox don't spend a ton as well. They do, but it is clear that they are still not at the level of the Yankees. That does not mean that the Mets and Sox are not hated by small market fans as well. They most definitely are, and should be. My argument was singularly focused on the Patriots and Yankees. I am proud to be a Mets fan, but I do think that the economic distribution through out MLB is unfair and at some point must be fully addressed.

STKAFI

Monday, January 22, 2007

Championship Games

NFC

Great win for Chicago and the Bears franchise. They were the most unappreciated #1 seed in recent memory. Something like 70% of bets in Vegas were against them. The quarterback played well enough and the defense played great. This is the recipe that they will need to beat the Colts. Swarm the football and force turnovers, while being able to make a couple big plays on offense.

A tough loss for New Orleans. A part of everyone was rooting for that city. No matter what though, no matter how the season ended this playoff run brought a lot to the people of that city. Not only that, but this is such a young team and there is a lot of promise for it. That has to be a good feeling for that city, to have something to look forward to. In any event, it was a fun game to watch and Chicago deserves this Super Bowl bid.

AFC

Great game. I am honestly still shocked. That is what sports does though. Whether its the Red Sox overtaking the Yankees, Bill Cowhers' Steelers going from a #6 seed to winning a Super Bowl, to the Saints making the NFC title game from 3-13 the year before. Manning had been heart-broken by the Pats before, and had lost games in the playoffs he was "supposed to win" numerous times as well. He fell behind by 18 points in the first half, but engineered his team to dominating drives in the second half. The Colts offense could not be stopped in the second half, due large in part to Manning. Not only his making plays, but his control of the pace and efficiency of the drives.

In my mind, the Pats once again though showed why they are such a great team. They lost to a better team, but they still were in position to win. They forced the Colts to win the game, they did not give it to them. This is consistently what the Pats do in the playoffs and most teams are not able to capitalize. Manning and the Colts did not let that happen. Obviously the end of yesterdays game had a couple Patriot miscues, but I do not view them as those. I felt the roughing the passer call on that last Colt drive was bogus, and the Brady pick was a pass he was trying to force considering the time situation. He admitted that himself. He was put in a situation where he has to try and make a play he would not usually look to make.

In any event this is good for the NFL. Most people did not want the Pats in the Super Bowl once again. While New Orleans would have been a great story in the Super Bowl, having Chicago there is always good for the league. They are a hallmark franchise, and bring a national fan base. The Colts have the leagues' most marketable player, and have been hyped to win it for years. This is as good of a match-up that the league could hope for.

Randoms
  • I don't really have a problem with the Reggie Bush flip. I don't like the taunting before/after, but I love his exuberance.
  • Thoughts on seeing Eli in the box watching his bro yesterday? I am not saying he should not support his brother, but for some reason its tough for me to see him there after not getting it done with the Giants. Any Giant fan wanna chime in on this or am I just being crazy?
  • All year I have hated how the refs have called the roughing the passer penalty. We saw it once again last night. That call on the Colts last drive was so ticky-tack. I know the rule, but it makes it so tough on defensive linemen. I hope the league addresses this in the offseason.
  • I know people rip Belechik for how he acts after games, but as a fan I like it. When my team losses a tough game I feel totally dejected. If you saw him after yesterdays game, it was the exact same. He gave short, bland answers to reporters' questions. I am not saying it is the most sportsmanlike thing to do, but at least you know as a fan of that team, that he puts everything into winning the game, and like many of the fans he lives and dies by the outcome.
  • Same with Brady. Asked if he would watch the Super Bowl he said "probably not." As a fan, it makes you feel good.
  • I thought that the Pats were good enough to win it all with Belechik, Brady, and that bruising defense. Obviously they did not, but they got two first round picks, plenty of cap space, and some holes to fill in the secondary and wide receiver position. They are not going anywhere.
  • I know this is similar to what Simmons wrote on Friday, but why do people hate the Pats so much? I have only two reasons why people should. One is that they are a Boston team. The other is that your favorite team is in the Pats' division or a rival of them (Colts, Steelers). Other than that I don't see why so many people hate on the Pats....Thoughts?

STKAFI

Friday, January 19, 2007

Friday Show

NFC Championship

When you look at this match-up, all the signs point to a Saints victory. They have a dominant running game, a top QB, a crafty coach, and they appear to be this seasons' "team of destiny." With that being said, I still think the Bears are going to win this Sunday. Why? First of all I think the Bear defense is pissed off at how they continually are being written off and are going to play a tremendously physical game on Sunday. They are going to beat up the Saint skill players. In addition, the weather and the fans will be a factor for Chicago. The Saints are a dome team, and they appear to be underestimating the effect that weather could have on this game. I think that the Bears will come out with aggression and grab the momentum in the first quarter. Rex Grossman will not have to win this game for the Bears, only not lose it for them.
Bears 23 Saints 14

AFC Championship

This is also a very tough game to call. All this signs are pointing to the Colts finally getting to the Super Bowl. Their defense is finally playing well enough to win a Super Bowl, and they finally have the Patriots in the playoffs at home. I will just not allow myself to pick against the Patriots though. I know that the Patriots are going to play a smart football game and I am pretty sure that Tom Brady will play well. What I am not sure about is the big game coaching of Tony Dungy and if Peyton Manning can get Bill Bellichik out of his head. I think that this will be a wonderful game to watch and the last team with the ball will win it. Unfortunately for the Colts, it will be the Pats who will win a thriller (as usual). Interesting stat....Brady is 10-0 lifetime indoors...
Patriots 30 Colts 27

NBA Quickie

After all of the hype the past few years of the "New NBA", this is supposed to be the year. People have been hyping the small ball of the Mavericks and the run'gun of the Suns for the past three years. So far they have won nothing. This year everyone is handing the Larry O'Brien trophy to one of them. Miami is in shambles, Detriot is bickering, San Antonio has lost a step, and Kobes' Lakers have still not won a playoff round post-Shaq. This is supposed to be the year where it comes down to Phoenix and Dallas. Then again, Phoenix had the best record in the league two years ago and did not get it done. Dallas was two wins away form winning it all last year and could not get it done. We will see what happens this year. I promise you three things though. No matter how slow you think the Spurs look now, they will not go quietly in May. The Phil/Kobe Lakers learned from last year, and will be the team no one in the West wants to face (especially the Suns). The East has no chance at winning it all. There isn't a Detroit or a Miami that could make an underdog run in the Finals.

Early NBA Draft

http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2007/writers/seth_davis/01/18/hoop.thoughs/index.html
Check out the top of the last page, and what is said about Oden and Durant...

http://rumourwhores.blogspot.com/2007/01/yeast-he-can-expect-is-3-match-ban.html
Check out some of the comments on the bottom....

STKAFI

Thursday, January 18, 2007

Randoms

The post is comin a little late this morning. I did not have time to write last night and this morning there was a fire alarm in my office building. Aaaaaaaaanyhoo, here is some stuff for ya..
  • I did not know much about Jerry Reese before the Giants promoted him to GM, but as of now I like the move. He is a young guy, and has been in the organization for a while. I like the idea that he understands New York and the Giants history. In the same respect though, he will put his own touch on the Giants operation. I think that he will bring some new ideas and hopefully some needed innovation to the franchise.
  • Interesting (and long-awaited) baseball trade went down yesterday. The Braves acquired Mike Gonzalez form the Pirates for Adam Laroche. I like the deal from both sides. The Pirates needed some help offensively, especially at first base. It is more interesting from the Braves perspective though. Much like the AL East, the NL East now has a premium on left-handed pitching, especially in the bullpen. The Mets and Phillies are stacked with left-handed hitters and switch hitters that are better from the left side (Ryan Howard, Carlos Delgado, Chase Utley, Carlos Beltran). I could also see the Braves being in a position to deal Gonzalez to the AL East though for plenty of talent. The Yankees love him and the Red Sox still need a closer..
  • Recently the NBA talk has been of who is the best clutch shooter, since Gilbert Arenas has been knocking down buzzer beaters on what seems like a nightly basis. My top three guys I want the ball with the clock going down....1. Kobe Bryant 2. Gilbert Arenas 3. Steve Nash
  • After all that has happened this season so far with the Knicks they still would not be in the playoffs if the season ended today. Will Isiah keep his job? Unfortunately I think so, but if they don't make the playoffs he shouldn't. Whatever, this is a waste of space.
  • Why is everyone hating on the NFL playoffs after last week. Everyone is ripping the Bears in the NFC game and everyone is sick of both the Colts and Pats in the AFC. I think both will be great games, and come Monday we will be happy with the Super Bowl match-up no matter who it is. No matter what it will be better than Seattle/Shitsburgh.
  • http://www.nytimes.com/2007/01/18/sports/baseball/18mets.html?_r=1&ref=sports&oref=slogin
  • http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/si_blogs/scorecard/jimmys_blog/2007/01/most-unforgettable-musical.html
  • Tomorrow I will have brief Title game picks. We all know the match-ups and keys, so I will have something short about each game.

STKAFI

Tuesday, January 16, 2007

Blink

I recently finished reading Blink by Malcolm Gladwell. It was published a couple years ago and has received a ton of notoriety since then. In a nutshell, the book analyzes a different approach to solving problems. This approach is geared towards maximizing your subconscious thoughts and not consciously over-thinking problems. According to Gladwell, our most educated solutions are very likely to be derived within a few seconds of being presented with a problem. Professionally, this type of approach can only be used with an expert in any given field. For example, my instincts towards spotting a potential mugger are much less likely to be correct than a policeman's initial subconscious in this matter. He goes on to judge this theory in many different areas, most of which relate to all of us. Obviously, you can tell that I enjoyed this book. Why is this in any way relevant to anything that I ever write about in this blog, you ask? After reading this book, it is clear to me that quarterback is a classic example of "Blink" or as Gladwell also puts it, thin slicing.

Football is known, besides the violence, for having a tremendous amount of practice and film preparation. There are hours of film study to go along with hundreds of repetitions each week to prepare for a game. The quarterback is involved in every single offensive play, thus he is often the most intense during preparation. After the players leave the huddle and a play is called it is the QBs' responsibility to look at the defense and decide if that play is appropriate or not, considering what the defense is showing. It is also the QBs' responsibility to call out to his linemen where certain blitzes may be coming from and where certain defensive players are lined up. Once the ball is snapped though, the QB has usually about three seconds to process everything from the film study, to the reps, to what he just saw in the defense, to what the defense is actually doing. He has three seconds to manufacture all of that in his head and make a play with the ball.

When a QB is drafted he is examined in every way possible. From his arm strength, to his touch, to his intelligence, to his leadership abilities. In my mind, the most important aspect of a QB is his thin-slicing ability. This is something that can only be seen on the field, in a game situation. If a player has these other attributes, it may make his thin slicing ability easier, since he can make more potential plays on the field with his arm strength or mobility, but it by no means guarantees it. That is why drafting a QB is such a difficult and imperfect science.

When you look at the QBs in the league, two stand out Tom Brady and Peyton Manning. They both have "plus" arms, show great touch, are considered extremely intelligent, are meticulous at preparation and are driven leaders. Their "blink" abilities are what put them at another level though. They are able to hike a football and process all of the information in their mind in an unconscious way where they are not thinking. While they think they are just reacting to the play, their subconscious is really processing everything and allowing them to make the right decisions.

The reason that I am bringing this topic up now is two fold. One is that these two players will be facing off this Sunday in Indianapolis. The other is that the Playoffs are the most pressure a NFL player will face and this is where thin-slicing is most important. Gladwell mentions in his book that under tremendous pressure our thin-slicing abilities can malfunction. It is tough for me to explain, but basically our heart rate can reach such a high level, that we become temporarily autistic, even for just a few seconds. In this time period our subconscious does not process decisions correctly, and we suffer as a result.

When looking at Peyton Mannings' career, one might say that he suffers from this in the postseason. In the regular season he is as cool as a cucumber and is able to "react" calmly on the field. In the postseason, he gets so riled up that his subconscious does not perform at the same high level that he is accustomed to. Tom Brady on the other hand has been legendary in the clutch and the postseason. He has led game winning drives with less than two minutes left in two Super Bowls, in addition to numerous other pressure performances. Last week though, he did not play well and made a number of poor decisions. The types of decisions that we are used to seeing Manning make in the postseason and not Brady.

I was listening to an interview with Phil Simms this week on the radio and his descriptions sounded very similar to the type of actions that Gladwell describes. Simms was asked about the pressure on a QB and if they feel it. Simms said that he never felt it and he did not think it existed. He continued by saying that throughout his career, if he threw an interception and he was asked as he got to the sideline why he threw it he would not know. It was like his his body was just reacting to the play, and not until he saw the play on film could he remember what was going on in his head and why he made the throw. The speed of the game was too quick for him to feel the pressure consciously.

I am not going to get wrapped up in his view on pressure. What does interest me though is his description of a play on the field. The quickness of it and how he reacted so fast that he could not tell you his thought process directly after the play was finished. This is exactly the type of feeling that Gladwell describes in his book. Who knows what will happen this week in Indy, and who knows why Manning and Brady both played so poorly last week? What I think, is that every player is human and can have a bad game every once in a while. I honestly feel though that in the postseason environment, Brady has an edge on Manning. Brady, even when he makes a bad play, seems in control, while Manning seems to be searching for answers. Who knows which will win this week, but for this one game, in this environment, it seems that Brady has the better chance of succeeding. In a Playoff environment, he appears to be able to thin-slice at a consistently higher level than Manning or any other QB in the league.

Again, I recommend this book. While you may not agree with it, it definitely is thought-provoking, especially for a sports fan. More specifically, the never-ending debate over who is and is not clutch. In the bigtime, playoff situation some players naturally have the correct "blink" reaction (Derek Jeter, Brady, Michael Jordan) and some continually suffer with that "temporary autism", as Gladwell puts it (Patrick Ewing, Jeff Vanderjagt, Armando Benitez, Chirs Webber). The question though, is can a player overcome this, and become "clutch"? For all of you Manning and AROD fans, you better hope so...

STKAFI
Two Links

I don't mean to totally rip Deadspin.com off, but these two links are too good, especially considering my cause of riding Tom Brady/Patriots and hating all other Boston sports. Enjoy...I dedicate the second clip to Smurph and Rambone (get my $50 ready sucka!)...

http://deadspin.com/sports/nfl/tom-brady-still-clockin-hos-228934.php

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Le8rMnL56w8&eurl=

STKAFI

Monday, January 15, 2007

Great NFL/MLK Weekend

Just a flat out super weekend for the NFL. All four games were extremely intense and entertaining. Three of the four games were decided by three points and all four games were within a touchdown in the fourth quarter. In addition, each game featured teams with different styles and was extremely unpredictable. This weekend showed the best of every aspect that the NFL has to offer. Weekends like these are why we are NFL (sports) fans. On to the individual games...

Colts/Ravens

  • If I told you that the Colts would not score a TD would anyone have given them a chance?
  • Peyton Manning did not play well at all, but Steve McNair played worse.
  • The McNair pick on the one yard line was horrendous. In a game like this you can not have a turnover that close to the goal line. Unbelievably big play by the Indy defense as well.
  • The Adam Viniateri acquisition by the Colts has already paid huge dividends. This is the kind of game that the Colts have found a way to lose in the past.
  • While Manning continued his typical poor playoff performances, this game could end up being the best thing to happen to him. The Indy defense won the game for the Colts, which could allow Peyton to play with less of a burden next week. He may be more relaxed knowing his defense is playing so well behind him.

Saints/Eagles

  • A very clean and efficient game. Only one turnover combined between the two teams.
  • The Saints have a very underrated front four on defense.
  • Both teams came to play, but the Saints running game wore the Eagles down.
  • The New Orleans crowd was electric. With that being said though, the Saints have proven that they can win on the road as well. They not only beat, but killed both the Giants and Cowboys on the road this season.
  • Props to Curtis.
  • Great run Rambone, see you next season, with ur gimp QB back...

Bears/Seahawks

  • The big question coming into the game was Rex Grossman. He played pretty well, but not great. A Bear fan has to be satisfied with his performance though. You can hope for better, but should not expect it.
  • Hasselback confuses me. He is fearless, and makes big plays, but also make a lot of really stupid plays. A lot like one of Holmgrens' former QBs...
  • Seattle played a real gutsy game. They were out manned, but they battled. Deep down Holmgren knows he got the most out of this injury plagued bunch.
  • I am impressed by Holmgren, and I think he is very underrated as a head coach. Everyone talks about Parcells, Shanahan and others, but forgets Holmgren. He wins and always plays well in the playoffs.
  • If the Bears would have lost this, the city of Chicago would have been in mourning for a long time. They needed this win bigtime.

Patriots/Chargers

  • The Patriots were outplayed, but found a way to win.
  • Brady did not play well, but the Chargers gave him enough chances to allow Brady to break their hearts.
  • Marlon McCree made a horrific play in the fourth quarter. At 4th and 5, with 6:25 to go he picks off Brady and proceeds to fumble and give the Pats new life. He needs to either knock the ball down or fall to the ground when he picks it off. At 4th down the Chargers get the ball anyway!! His gaffe gave the Pats new life, and Brady made them pay.
  • Marty Schottenheimer is a tough luck loser, but he contributed to the loss as well. There is no reason to challenge the fumble with 6:25 to go. It was clear to everyone in the stadium that it would not be overturned, and the timeout would have been key for them to have on that last drive.
  • LDT played insanely well, but I don't understand how he got only eight carries in the second half. Inexplicable. The Chargers have the best player in the world on their side and they don't take advantage of it. He carved up New England whenever he got the ball, but he did not get it enough, especially on their second to last drive with the score tied. They ran it with LDT for five yards, then had two incompletions.
  • How does Schottenheimer go for it on 4th and 11 in the first quarter, when he had a 47 yard field goal and a Pro Bowl kicker? That is one of the more ridiculous decisions I have seen by a coach in a long time.
  • Compliments of Peter King....Bellichik is 5-1 vs #1 seeds in the postseason. Think about that...Six time he has been against the top team in the league on the road in the playoffs and he has won five of them. If that is not a direct correlation with his superior coaching, then I don't know what is.

LDT

I thought that LDT over-reacted to the Patriots celebrating after the game. While I never like a team mocking an opposing teams' celebration, it is something that happens (Numerous teams mocked the Giants "We Fly High" jumpshot, the St. Louis Cardinals chanting "Jose, Jose, Jose, Jose" after beating the Mets in the NLCS). I do not feel that the Pat should be held to a different standard either just because they are three time Champs. As we all know in the NFL, turnover is drastic and many of these players have not won a Super Bowl. In addition, after the game, the Pats did not disparage the Chargers in the media. Anyway, the boys over at Profootballtalk.com had this to say concerning LDT and the Chargers and this whole Patriots/Class issue....

CHARGERS HAVE A SHORT MEMORY
Amid complaints from running back LaDainian Tomlinson and other members of the San Diego Chargers that the New England Patriots celebrated too fervently their unlikely victory over the 14-2 Bolts on Sunday, we've been reminded of the Chargers reaction to a similarly unlikely win from a year ago.
In New England.
After thumping the Pats by the score of 41-17 and shattering the team's 21-game home winning streak, the Chargers were not exactly humble.
"That's a [butt]-whipping," said defensive coordinator Wade Phillips in an article penned by Tom Curran, who at the time wrote for the Providence Journal and who now works for NBCSports.com.
Cornerback Drayton Florence (or is it Florence Drayton?) was less tactful: "F--k New England and their team," he said, before turning to a "collection of onlookers" and adding: "Get the look of shock off your faces. Don't be shocked. We beat your [butt]."
So, you know, maybe a few of the Pats were remembering the way that the Chargers handled themselves in 2005.
And if L.T. is going to get bent out of shape because his opponents do this kind of stuff, we'd like to hear what he's been doing to persuade his teammates not to act that way, either.
Frankly, there aren't many NFL teams that can claim to be, top to bottom, the modern-day equivalent of Fred Blassie. So none of them should ever be bitching when another squad does what they've surely done themselves at some point in the not-so-distant past.

Lastly

My boy Curtis (Huge Saints fan) decided to make a youtube video leading up to the Saints game against the Eagles....enjoy...

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RPkz6-J1Qe4&eurl=

Next Week...

It will be interesting to watch. I can't wait for the Super Bowl, I mean AFC Title Game. Preveiws for both later in the week. Sorry if this synopsis is brief, but I spent the weekend in the Poconos with the GF. I watched every game, but in not the same environment that I am used to. I can say this though...he interpretations of the games are consistantly of things that I never notice...

STKAFI

Friday, January 12, 2007

Simmons

Anyone else think that the Sports Guy article today is a load of cow dung? If you did not read it, he makes the case that NFL coaches have a shelf life of about 15-20 years and once they hit 55 years old they begin to go downhill.

In theory, I agree that men 60 years old are not nearly as well equipped to endure a 70 hour work week and all of the other pressures that NFL coaching brings. The fact remains though that Bill Parcells, Tom Coughlin, Marty Schottenheimer, and Mike Holmgren all are over 55 and got their teams into the playoffs. That is pretty impressive, especially when you consider that there are not that many 55+ year old coaches in the league.

Look, if I was running a team I would want a younger coach who had an opportunity to build a legacy within my organization. That does not mean though that older coaches are not successful. In fact, if you look at the numbers older coaches are basically just as successful as their younger colleagues. Sometimes Simmons tries to make a theory just for the sake of it. Whatever, it was fun to read.

Thoughts anyone?

Thursday, January 11, 2007

The Old Catch 22

In the past five to 10 years, college football has gone through major changes. The BCS was formed, coaches are now paid comparably to the pros, and mid-major schools are now having the opportunities to play in major bowls. Probably the most influential change though is the sudden popularity of NFL style offenses. This change has put speed at a premium and often times put cold weather schools at a disadvantage.

The past four National Title winners and five of the past six are all warm weather schools. The 2002 Ohio St team is the one instance in that time frame when a cold weather team won it all. While Ohio St definitely earned that distinction, to this day many people feel that Miami was the best team that year. In any event, this trend is clear no matter who won in 2002. If you look deeper into these schools, you see that each team had pro-style offenses that were built on tremendous speed. When I say pro-style offense, I mean spreading out wide receivers, screen passes, and double moves. Often times more passing than running, and little to no semblance of the wish bone or option running attack. Up until the mid-1990's college teams often were built on conservative offenses. Speed was less of a necessity.

I am not saying that speed did not exist in the past, or that it was totally unimportant, but coaches are realizing better ways to utilize speed. When players get drafted and go to the NFL, the first thing that they say is so different is the speed of the game. They say that the NFL is just so much faster. Coached such as Urban Meyer, Pete Carroll, Nick Saban and Bobby Petrino have built their offenses on an NFL model. This model is geared towards speed from the skill positions. As a result they target players with speed in recruiting. The players meanwhile like going to play in these offenses because they feel it prepares them better for a potential NFL career. The coaches use the speed to win and the players use the schemes to reach the NFL.

So what does this have to do with warm weather schools? Well, what is something that is guaranteed to nullify speed? Bad weather. If you play a game with high winds, or extreme cold, or rain, or snow, speed is often made futile. If you are going to play at a Notre Dame or a Michigan or Ohio St, chances are that you are going to have to win a game or to in bad weather. If that is the case, you want to have guys that are bigger and stronger to fight through the weather. This was the case in the National Title game. Ohio St.'s defense had mauled the Big 10 all year, yet against Florida it was exposed as painfully slow. Florida swarmed all over the field. Ohio St probably did not see a team that fast all year. The same can be said about the Rose Bowl when Michigan got ambushed by USC. Both of these Big 10 teams that were hyped all season were made to slow and overall inferior.

The cold weather teams are using the NFL type offenses as well, but they do not have the same mentality when it comes to speed as their warmer weather competition. They have to be built to win their conference, or they have no chance at the National Title. While a team like Florida can play great in good weather conditions, I am not sure they would have the same success in Ann Arbor on a November 11 in freezing rain. Of course the cold weather schools do have some speed, but not the depth of it as a USC or an LSU might have. When Ten Ginn Jr. went down with an injury all of the sudden Ohio St. lost its ability to stretch the field.

This need for speed has also spread to the defensive side of the ball. In order for the SEC teams to battle with each other they need to not only put points on the board, but they also need to have the ability to stop their opponents. They not only go after speed in the secondary, but also in the linebackers and even on the defensive line. Floridas' defensive line was consistently in the Ohio St backfield. Their speed was just too much for Ohio St's offensive line to handle.

The question now is "what next?" Teams like Michigan, Ohio St. and Notre Dame aren't going to just disappear. I honestly do not know what the answer is. There has to be a way for these teams to compete against the speed of the SEC, Pac 10 and Big 12. I honestly do not know what the answer is. Maybe they should just copy what these other schools are doing and go all out for speed. As described above though, that could cause potential problems as well.

I would look towards the NFL for answers. Every NFL team has speed. Some have more than others obviously. Guys like Parcells and Belechick have focused their defenses on size and scheme rather than speed though. They have been successful in the NFL for a long time. It would only make sense that college coaches would go to guys like this for advise on how to combat these innovative college offenses.

I know that this theory is a stretch in some eyes, but it is definitely something worth keeping an eye on. Notre Dame, and the Big 10 are two storied college football institutions. Now it seems like they are consistently over-rated. Maybe there is no real reason for this trend, maybe this theory holds weight. Maybe it is just because states like Texas, Florida and California are overflowing with recruiting talent. The fact remains though, that the college football landscape has changed over the past few years. It will be interesting to see if cold weather teams adjust and take over again, or if this goes from a trend to a college football staple.

Football Picks:

NFC
Seattle (+9 1/2 ) over Chicago....I think Chicago will win, but that is a lot of points in the NFC. If the Bears lose, Grossman should be lookin for a job. The fans of Chicago hate him more than Giant fans do Tommy Coughlin.

Saints (-5 1/2) over Eagles...The Saint are just so tough at home. Not to mention their offense is incredible. I am not trying to disrespect the Eagles, but the Saints are rested and the Superdome will be electric.

Ravens (-4 1/2) over Colts....I never like picking against Peyton Manning, but I also don't like this match-up for him. I would not underestimate the fans emotion considering the Colts franchise left Baltimore in 1984 in a very controversial manner. Plus in potentially bad weather I will stick with McNair, who is a warrior.

Patriots (+4 1/2) over Chargers....I am just stickin with my boys Brady and Belechick. The Chargers are extremely explosive, but they also have a coach who never wins in the postseason. I am not sold on Phillip Rivers in a big spot as well.

Pete Carroll

Smurph and Relaxo were goin on yesterday about Pete Carroll and the NFL. While he definitely was not a bigtime head coach in the NFL, I would not call him a failure either. I think the he got a raw deal with the Jets (one season then fired for Rich Kottite). He was average with the Patriots (one playoff and a 27-21 record). He obviously is a tremendous college coach. I would be wary of giving him full control of a team and seven million dollars a year in the NFL though. He is a very unique case, but I would not say that his time in the NFL was a failure. I would say that he was decent, and considering his college success deserves another shot at it. With that being said, I am glad his name has not been floated relating to the Giants job.

Becks

Wow. I don't understand $250 million to a guy who plays a sport that no one in the US cares about, but I like it. I am down to go to my first Metrostars game when the Galaxy come to town....who's comin wit me?

FYI...I wrote most of this yesterday, and I am too hungover to proofread it..

Hey Realxo.....http://www.nydailynews.com/sports/story/487923p-410855c.html

Lastly....http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/news/story?id=2728273 ...Insert fat joke here

STKAFI
I Don't Like Them.....But I Respect Them....

I went to the Knick game last night. My boss got last minute tickets, so I joined him. My boss is actually really cool and gets tickets to games all the time. Anyway, the seats were sick and since we had an extra ticket my boss asked if I had a friend to come with us. Knick games are weird because a lot of people either don't like the Knicks or just don't like the NBA in general. In the same breath, some people like going to Knick games just for the scene and excitement of the crowd, etc. I asked the big guy if he wanted to come and he obliged. The seats were even better than expected and we had a great time. Knicks blew out the Sixers and we had beers and food bought for us all night.

I honestly do not see myself ever fully jumping on the Knicks bandwagon as long as Isiah Thomas is still a part of the franchise. I truly dislike him and Stephon Marbury. In any event, he has a assembled a mish-mosh of talent that has been able to sort itself out through numerous injuries, suspensions, and an us against the world mentality. I have to say that this team battles every night and continually sticks together. Two things that could potentially damage this is if Stevie Francis comes back, and if the Knicks decide to sign Chris Webber. Assuming that neither of those things happen, the Knicks could easily make the playoffs and be a tough out in the first round for a Detroit, or Chicago.

Rotation

Eddy Curry...The only man who can stop him in the low post is himself.
Channing Frye....As smooth a jump shot as any 6'10" in the league.
Jared Jefferies....Terrible offensive player, good team guy and tough on defense.
Jamal Crawford....Chucker, but has good chemistry with Marbury and Curry.
Stephon Marbury....Still takes it to the bucket as well as anyone. Is comfortable with Isiah.

David Lee....Constant energy and great rebounder
Quentin Richardson....Best 3 point shooter on the team, good rebounder and tough defender.
Ronaldo Balkman...Still raw, but understands the team concept and will fight to win.
Nate Robinson....Fan favorite and flashy. Very good shooter, and is starting to play smarter.

Obviously I am praising all of their strengths and not pointing out that they still have trouble with turnovers and defense. Crawford and Marbury can never keep their man in front of them, while Frye, Lee and Curry can't guard anyone in the post. They are helping each other out though, and their front line is very long. They don't have a truly great player, and they could use more three point shooting. Now if they only fired Isiah, I could really start to like this team...

New thing I am going to try.....Links to article I like from NYC newspapers, and possibly other sports venues. Sorry Buster Olney, but two can play this game....(for NYTimes, you need an account, some article are free, some are pay)

http://select.nytimes.com/2007/01/11/sports/football/11anderson.html?ref=sports
http://www.nydailynews.com/sports/story/487682p-410640c.html
http://www.nypost.com/seven/01112007/sports/giants/surprise__players_ok_with_tom_return_giants_paul_schwartz.htm
http://www.newsday.com/sports/hockey/rangers/ny-sprang115048020jan11,0,5152118.story?coll=ny-sports-headlines
http://www.newsday.com/sports/baseball/mets/ny-spmets115048034jan11,0,6511198.story?coll=ny-sports-headlines

Two last things. Jets might very well be losing their offensive coordinator (Dolphins? If so...goodbye Smurph and hello Relaxo!). That would definitely put a damper on the momentum the Jets have built up this season.

I really like the fact that the Mets have a mini-camp in January. It is very good for the prospects and builts further team unity for the veterans if they choose to attend. Good to see both David Wright and Pedro Martinez attending this year..

STKAFI

Wednesday, January 10, 2007

Quickies
  • Numerous reports hav the Giants hiring Jerry Reese as their GM and bringing back Tom Coughlin on a one year contract extension. Reese has been a part of the Giants organization for a number of years and is highly endorsed by retiring GM, Ernie Acorsi. I like this move. There is no one out there that is really attractive, plus hiring from within can make the change to a new GM smoother. I obviously have mixed feelings on Coughlin. Yesterday, Smurph Baggins himself sent me a link to a site which said that Coughlin was told to either resign or will be fired. My initial feeling was relief and excitement. My feeling this morning upon hearing he will be back was one of uncertainty. I don't know how the players will react to him next year. One fact that is definitely true though is that there are no realistic coaching canidates out there right now that truly intrigue me.
  • Interesting note on Coughlins' first three seasons in New York....In first half of each season he is 17-7 and the second half of each season he is 8-16. That is definitely a trend to make note of. He needs to change something (probably the continual yelling and pointless rules) in order to get his team to respond better in December and hopefully January as well.
  • I think that the Giants need to either draft a RB in the first or second round of the draft, or make a strong push to sign Michael Turner of the Chargers. He is a 25 year old restricted free agent playing behind an all-time great. He can return in addition to play RB. It would be a perfect fit. He can split carries with Brandon Jacobs, and return kicks and punts with Sinorce Moss.
  • Why is Eric Mangini refusing to announce Chad Pennington as his starter for next season? I understand the mentality of everybody playing for their job, but this treatment of respected veterans can potentially bury you. Pennington had a very good year, and there should be no doubt on his status as the starter for next season. I understand how respected Mangini is by Pennington and the rest of the players, but this type of action could cause rifts in the locker room. Without Pennington, this would have been a 6-10 team.
  • I don't understand why Arizona gave up anything for Randy Johnson. I also don't understand why they extended his deal. He is washed up and a baby.
  • Thank you Troy Smith, Jim Tressel and Ohio St. for losing me $310.
  • So last week the Chiefs had one of the best RBs in the league playing against the worst run defense in the league (Colts). The Colts defense dominated and Larry Johnson did nothing. This week the Colts are facing the Ravens who have one of the worst running games in the league. Watch the Ravens control the ball and run it all day on the Colts....That is just how the NFL has gone this season.
  • Fact or Fiction....When the Sixers come into the Garden tonight, Larry Brown will be sitting behind the Knicks bench, while throwing cracker jacks at Isiah and heckling him...

STKAFI

Monday, January 08, 2007

Urban Legend

http://www.fanblogs.com/ncaa/004197.php
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/articles/A31894-2004Dec3.html
http://proxy.espn.go.com/ncf/columns/story?columnist=forde_pat&id=1935210 (Insider)

Before I address the game last night I want to remind Notre Dame fans of three short years ago. As you know, I am a Notre Dame hater. While I have my own views on their firing of Ty Willingham, I do admit that part of the reason they did it was because of what was out there. The bottom line is that they were infatuated with Urban Meyer (then in the middle of an undefeated season at Utah) and they wanted him to be their coach. He had served as an assistant coach at Notre Dame during the mid-1990s and he had said publicly that he was always interested in returning to South Bend.

I remember the scene very clearly. After firing Ty Willingham, Notre Dame went on a full court press for Meyer. Their biggest administrators and boosters flew the private Notre Dame jet down to Utah to meet with Meyer. They wanted him to agree to a deal that day. Unfortunately for them that did not happen. Not only that, but within a week he had publicly declined Notre Dame and decided to leave for University of Florida and a seven year $14 million contract. Publicly, Meyer said that he felt he had a better chance to win at Florida and it was a better decision for his family. Who knows if there are reasons beyond that which he did not say publicly. One thing is clear though. He had the chance to coach at Notre Dame and he turned it down. The job which he said was his dream job was offered to him and he declined. Now he is a National Champion at Florida.

At this point Notre Dame fans are probably not that bothered by this. They ended up getting a guy who they love (even though he was not on their radar when they fired Willingham, as referenced in the articles above). Charlie Weiss has invigorated the program, but has not won a big game yet. To be fair, Weiss came in following two recruiting classes that were rated in the top 30 but not in the top 20. Meyer meanwhile inherited two straight recruiting classes in the top 15. In the same respect though, Florida was coming off of three straight five loss seasons even with those good recruiting classes. Both Notre Dame and Florida have top five recruiting classes this year and last. I am sure that Notre Dame fans/boosters are a bit envious of Meyer and his win last night, but still have high expectations of their own for next season. If the same thing happens next year though, they might start getting a bit restless, as might their coach.

As for the National Title game last night, it was a slaughter. You can look at it in two ways. First of all, and most evident is the tremendous speed of the Florida team. They were a step ahead of Ohio St. the entire game both on offense and defense. They were constantly pressuring Troy Smith, while their QB (Chris Leak) had time to pick apart the Ohio St. defense. The other way to look at it was a superior coaching job by Florida. Early in the game they seemed to just be a step ahead with their misdirections, screens, and double moves. While speed obviously helped in this, the plays were consistently getting the Florida receivers/backs in space to use their superior speed and athletic ability.

In my mind this game was an example of Ohio St. coming into the game with a specific gameplan and not adjusting. You got the feeling that Ohio St. was confident that they could just line up and physically dominate Florida. They did not appear to blitz much and they stayed true to their conservative Big 10 offense. Florida on the other hand, was running all over the place. Ohio St. needed to adjust because it was clear early on that their gameplan was seriously flawed and it was not hindering the Florida in any way. In addition, going for it on 4th and 1 from your own 30 yard line is a sign of clear desperation. Ohio St might as well of thrown in the towel after not converting that.

Active College Coaches with Titles

Urban Meyer
Bob (don't call me Poops) Stoops
Nick Gayban Saban
Pete Carroll
Steve Spurrier
Bobby Bowden
Joe Paterno (when he is not falling over on the sidelines and running to the bathroom)
Mack Brown
Phil Fulmer
Jim Tressel
Lloyd Carr

In my mind the best in order is...

Pete Carroll
Urban Meyer
Nick Saban
Jim Tressel
Bob Stoops

If they don't have a National Title, they are not making the list.

Last thing....Has there ever been a worse Bowl performance by a reigning Heisman Trophy winner???

STKAFI

Sunday, January 07, 2007

A Fitting End

The Sports Guy calls it a "stomach punch" game. That is exactly how I felt after the Giants game. Not only did i feel it in my stomach though, my legs were wobbly and I was light headed. No matter how you felt about the Giants going into the game, if you were a Giant fan you had to be pumped with 5:04 to go and Plaxico catching a touchdown pass to tie it. Following that, an all too familiar scene ensued. The Giants defense failed to make a big stop and the Eagles marched down the field with ease to kick a game-winning field goal as time ran out.

As I pointed out prior to the game, this was a weird situation for Giant fans. Many dislike the coach, are frustrated with the QB, and are disenchanted with the attitude of many veteran players. This game did not help Giant fans. Not only did they lose, but it was in typical fashion. The Giants continued to battle, shoot themselves in the foot, and keep you on the edge of your seat. In the end though, they once again, lost in devastating fashion, this time to end this tumultuous season.

The first question that people will ask is what will happen with the head coach? Many people feel that Coughlin should be fired. In my mind there are three main reasons for this. First of all is team discipline. He came in three years ago preaching it, yet his players have continued to make dumb penalties/plays, and run their mouths off the field. Secondly is the play of the QB. Coughlin (and the GM) will forever be linked with this QB, being that they traded so much for him. Whether it is the QBs' fault, or the coaches fault, he has not developed as rapidly as the team or fans would have liked. This lack of improvement is a reflection on both the coahc and the QB. Lastly, his overall persona towards the media is a problem. He has not made any friends with how he has acted and because of that he has made himself into a martyr. That is not what you want to be in this town. Rarely can one man win a battle against the media in New York. When you combine the first two issues with the third, he has a major problem.

I do not know what I want though. I am definitely not happy with Coughlin right now. No matter what kind of injuries the Giants had this season, I thought that the Giants should have been at least 10-6 this season. I have not given up on him though. There is a part of me that believes that this season might be the best thing for this franchise. By the end of this season I felt that the team had been humbled, by both its record and its beatdown by the fans/media. It had hung together and fought its brains out in Washington and Philly these past two weeks. The thought of bringing in a new coach and starting from scratch really scares me. The Jets made it look easy this season with Mangini, but it often does not go like that. Change often does not go smoothly. At this moment I still believe, even with all the problems, that if Coughlin is back and they make the proper adjustments in the offseason (plus the QB shows improvement), that the Giants can be in the Super Bowl hunt.

While I am not trying to make Mangini into some sort of Messiah, there is one thing that I have heard him say through out the season. Finish. Finish blocks, finish tackles, finish games, finish seasons. What bothers me most about the 2006 Giants is that they did not finish. They were 6-2 in the first half and 2-6 in the second half. Today they tied the game in the fourth and then the defense rolled over when it mattered. They did not finish the way I would have like them to. This feeling is what makes me so torn on the coach. This is definitely another reflection on him, yet I do not want to have to go through another offseason of radical change. While I am not enamored with Coughlin, I still believe he has what it takes to win. I also believe that through these tough times, the team has rallied around him. In the upcoming days we will hear players thoughts, and the owners will make a decision, but right now the loss really hurts, as does the cloudy prospects for the future. In addition part of me is realizing that if Coughlin is brought back, the media will be licking their chops even more. Whatever.

As far as the game itself goes, it was tough. Eli did not play very well, but he did make a couple big plays. His stats actually look better than he looked. The D-Line got barely any push, and rarely pressured Garcia. Westbrook ran well, and made the big play that I feared. Tiki played well, as did Plaxico. Shockey gutted one out, but the offensive line penalties were killers. In the end though, I will remember this game as one more example in the long line of Giant losses in the Fassell/Coughlin era where the defense can not make a big stop at the end of the game. It has happened time and time again going back to the 1997 playoff loss at home to the Vikings. They need something to happen on that defense. That basically all I can say on that.

In the end the Giants lost the way it seems they were meant to all along. There are no clear solutions to the problems they endured all year. They battled, both against the Eagles and within themselves. It is probably a 50-50 call on whether the coach will stay and the QB is still a major question mark. I just hope that this ownership group can show the class and patience of their fathers. With Wellington Mara and Bob Tisch I always knew that even if the decision they made was wrong, they would go about their business the right way. This is the first major obstacle of their sons. I am looking forward to seeing how they respond, and how the Giants rebound.

Jets

Sorry Jet fans that I can not go into detail on them. The Giants sapped the life out of me. All I know is that you should be proud of two things. The team played hard from the first preseason game to the playoffs. While the score is the more lopsided loss in jet history, anyone watching that game knows how close it really was. Secondly, your future is in good hands with Mangini/Tannenbaum/Schottenheimer. The offense will only get better with a running game, and you know the hole they need to fill on defense. From a Giants fan perspective that is the one aspect I envy most of the Jets. You know where you are where where you want to go. The Giants are still trying to figure out where the franchise is before it moves forward.

As far as your game goes, besides the fact that the Jets could not atop the Pats from moving the ball all day, I felt the game changed on two plays. Third and goal on the Jets two yard line with 14 seconds remaining and no timeouts, Tom Brady threw a TD. If the jets force a FG their they have some momentum going into the half. The other was the lateral that Pennington threw that was knocked down, but no Jet player realized the ball was still live. The pats were up seven at the time, and went in to kick a FG to make it a two score game. The Jets knew they could not stop the Pats offense, so they needed to stay within one score. They ended up cutting it to a one score game again, but the Pats marched back down for a TD. The biggest overall problem for the Jets (besides overall defense) was their red zone offense. This is where their lack of a running game really showed up. If you can't run the ball in the red zone, then you are going to suffer. The Jets battled to the end though, and you could tell from the players reactions after the game that they truly thought they would win.

I would enjoy thoughts of any legit Giants or Jets fans on what happened on this potential legendary New York football day, which turned into the opposite.

Morning After...

It is now 8:25 AM the next morning. I just want to make a couple more points about the NFL/Giants...
  • Something I meant to mention about Coughlin that I didn't was the manner in which he fired his offensive coordinator. I have no problem with him firing the man. I do have an issue with not taking the play calling responsibilities over himself. He was trying to change the offense before a must win game and he put the play calling in the hands of someone else and not in himself. I do not like that. If you are going to go down, don't you think you want to have control in your own hands (ie Fassel in 2002, Billick this season, etc).
  • Another point on the Giant QB. Something that has never been brought up that I feel could be affecting his development is the addition of Plaxico Burress. No one dispute that Plaxico is a great receiver and can make catches in tight spots, but the fact is he has potentially effected the QB in a negative way. Plaxico rarely gets separation from the defender, but when he is defended one on one, Eli will throw high and Plaxico is in good position to catch the ball. The reason I say this could be having a negative influence on Eli is that now he is in the habit of throwing high and his mechanics are falling apart. In addition, he has fallen in love with Plaxico when he is one on one, and he fails to get into a rhythm with his other receivers. Look at a guy like Tom Brady. He is the exact opposite of this. The coaches need to drill that he needs to spread the ball around.
  • Last thing on Peytons' little brother. He had a disappointing season, but you have to understand that he will be the starting QB next season. If you rank all the QBs in the league he is probably between 18-20 of 32. Next season is it for his Giants career.
  • Giant needs, of the top of my head. Another reliable receiver (Moss could step up or Toomer could recover), a playmaking linebacker, veteran back-up QB, secondary help.
  • For all the KC Chief fans out there, Saturday was the epitome of a herm Edwards team. He says before the game that Trent Green will have a short leash. The offense proceeds to not only be shutout in the first half, but have ZERO first downs!! What kind of a "long leash" is that??? He sticks with Green while his defense is keeping his team in the game. You have Peyton Manning doing his annual playoff turnover special, but if your team can't score at some Manning will get it together. That's' exactly what happened, and a game the Chiefs could have won, was lost because the coach showed no balls.
  • Congrats to Rambone. It'll be tough going into NOLA next weekend, but beating a division rival is sweet enough, especially after this tough season.
  • Another thing on the Jets. It will be interesting to see how they respond next season. They were one of the healthiest teams in the NFL this year, and had an easy schedule. Next season that is unlikely to happen, plus teams will be gunning for them. Mangini used the underdog role a lot this season. It will be fun to see the adjustments they make next year.
  • Lastly on the NFC East. Giant fans need to recognize that the other teams in the division will be experiencing crazy offseasons as well. The Cowboys and Redskins are self-explanatory. The Eagles meanwhile (assuming they lose in NOLA) have an interesting QB situation with McNabb coming off of an ACL injury. Garcia will probably be let go, but at age 30, McNabb may never be the same mobility wise.
  • I have said it all along...I will be the first to say it now that they are matched up. The Patriots will go into San Diego and beat the Chargers. Who would you rather have, Schottenheimer/Rivers or Bellichuk/Brady? Enough said...
  • I had a dream last night that it was spring training already....


STKAFI

Friday, January 05, 2007

FREE MONEY SUNDAYS----BET THE PATS!!

We will see on Sunday, but I do not understand how Jet fans can be this confident. The Jets got to the playoffs on a creampuff schedule, with only one real quality win to hang their hat on (@ New England). Now because they are playing the team that they had that one quality win, they feel like they should win? Do you really think Bellichik is going to allow Pennington to throw those short passes? He is the master of taking one aspect of an offense totally away. He has the front seven to control the running game and he will concentrate on making Pennington throw the ball deep in order to move the ball. In addition, the Pats are pissed because Bellichik is pissed. I would literally be shocked if the Jets came into New England and won this game.

Lets be realistic guys. If the Jets win, it will be a major upset.

STKAFI

Thursday, January 04, 2007

Giants/Eagles

I really can not figure this game out. These team have each had such unconventional seasons and both know each other so well that really anything can happen. Each team was hyped at one point in the season and buried in another part, just to be praised once again. Each have suffered season ending injuries to franchise players, yet they both were able to overcome and make it to the playoffs. The difference between these two teams at this point is that the Eagles stormed into the playoffs on a winning streak, and the Giants have crawled here.

The Eagles have played extremely well in all phases of the game in the past five weeks. There were question marks on their offense because of the injury to Donavan McNabb, but Jeff Garcia has stepped in and played extremely well. He has spread the ball around to different receivers and been able to avoid the rush. The main reason for Garcias' success has been the dominance of their offensive line. They have played at a very high level and given Garcia the time and space to make plays. Being a shorter QB, Garcia not only needs protection, but clear lanes to throw in and his line has provided that consistently. In addition, Brian Westbrook has had his best season yet. He is a very explosive player, and has been a constant big play threat for that offense.

The Giant offense has been very much like its young QB, inconsistent. They have changed their offensive coordinator and there has been constant bickering from the players. When the GIants are at their best, Tiki Barber is getting the football. They need him to get 30 touches to win this ballgame. In addition though, the QB needs to spread the ball around. At time this season he has locked in on Plaxico and forgot about his other weapons. If I were the Giants, I would try to get Eli in a grove early through safe, short route to Tiki, Shockey (if he plays), and Sinoriece Moss. Burress will garner a lot of attention from the Eagle secondary, so they should use that to their advantage.

The key to this ballgame from an offensive perspective though is how the Giants handle the Eagles blitz. No matter how many times Tiki gets the ball, the Giants are going to have to throw the ball some as well. The Giants have had issues on their offensive line all season. They need to give the QB time in the pocket in order to be successful, especially on third downs. The Eagles are known for their blitzing and the Giants need to be ready for it.

On the other side of the ball the Giants need prevent the big play. More specifically, this means concentrating on Brian Westbrook and third downs. Any time Westbrook gets the ball, he is a threat to go the distance. He is the most dangerous man on the Eagles. If they can tackle well, especially on Westbrook, they will be in good shape. As for third downs, they have to keep Garcia in the pocket. Once he starts moving around, he gives his receivers time to get open. Also, Garcia is a very accurate passer on the run.

These teams know each other so well, and are so close in talent that it is going to be a close game. Both games this season were wacky. Each team probably feels like they should have won both of them. Instead each team won once on the other teams' home field. While I feel confident that the Giants should/will win, this is a game that is truly a toss up in my mind. As Giant fan it comes down to one thing. How will the QB play? If he has a confident, and accurate game, then the Giants will win. If he has a shaky game, then the Giants will struggle. This will not be a low scoring game. Both teams will put up points. In the end, I just hope the Giants have put up more.

Randy

The Big Unit has been traded. I like the deal for the Yanks as a franchise, but you can not tell me that they are a better team for the 2007 season. I do not like their starting rotation, but I now do like their depth of young pitching. They have enough offense where they will make the postseason, but once again I do not see them having enough pitching. They have set themselves up nicely for the future though by acquiring young pitching and saving money. Oh, and I do not want to hear about Roger Clemens. I do not look at him as a big game pitcher at this point in his career, and his ERA will jump a run if he goes to the AL.

STKAFI

Wednesday, January 03, 2007

Patriots/Jets

I have one question for Jets fans. Is this really what you wanted? I am not talking about making the playoffs, the answer to that is obvious. I am talking about their opponent in the playoffs. The talk amongst Jets fans right now is that they wanted the Pats in the first round. There are two obvious reasons for this. First of all the Jets have hated the Patriots for the past five years. During their dominance of the AFC East, the Pats have beaten up on the Jets. In addition, now that the coaches, Eric Mangini and Bill Belicheck (more on this below) have their frosty relationship, the rivalry has heated up even more. The other reason is that the Jets beat the Pats in New England earlier in the season for the first time in years. All I have to say to the Jet fans is, be careful what you wish for.

The Patriots are the most playoff tested team in the entire NFL. They have three Super Bowls in the past five seasons. They have the best head coach and the most clutch QB in the sport. Many of the NFL pundits have predicted their downfall, but they still finished 12-4, ending the season with impressive wins on the road against two very physical teams (Jacksonville and Tennessee). In my mind, they are still the team to beat in the AFC.

When it comes to the game this weekend, even though the Jets beat New England this season, I do not feel that they match up well against them. When the Jets beat the Pats, it had much to do with how the Jets played as it did with the weather (Gillette Stadium has since changed to filed turf to prevent this same thing from happening). Whenever the weather is as bad as it was in that game it always favors the underdog. Not only was the weather bad, but the turf was horrible. In addition, the Pats had numerous players out with injuries. I am not saying that the game was a fluke, I am just saying that when you look at these two teams, things that the Pats do well, are things that the Jets are trouble with, mainly running the ball.

The Pats are going to look to pound the ball down the Jets throats. With Lawrence Maroney and Corey Dillon, the Patriots may have the best RB combo in the league. The Jets meanwhile have struggled in stopping the run all year. In order for the Jets to have any chance to control this run, they are going to have to add an extra man in the box. The Jets do not want to do this because if they do, then the passing game will be opened up for Tom Brady. On the other side of the ball, the Pats are the fourth best team in the league at stopping the run. This is extremely important because the Jets will go into this game with the intention running the ball, controlling the clock and keeping Tom Brady on the sidelines. The biggest key in the game will be how effective the Jets are in running the football.

I do not feel that the Jets will be able to stop the Patriots from moving the football. The Patriot offense has gotten healthier in the end of the season and Brady has become more comfortable with his receiving core. If the Jets struggle to stop the Pats form moving the football, then they are going to have to force turnovers to stay in this game. How they plan to blitz Brady will be a key, especially with Kerry Rhodes from the safety position. He has had a great season, especially in blitzing the QB. If they can create pressure, and play aggressively, then they might get the turnovers that they will need.

When it comes to the Patriots there is not one thing that they have to do. They are a chameleon team. From week to week, year to year they have adapted and done whatever it takes to win. The Jets on the other hand will need to control the ball and the clock in order to win this ballgame.

In past seasons the Jets are appeared to be intimidated by the Patriots. Like most championship clubs, the Patriots have a certain swagger and attitude. The Jets had consistently lost to them and then seen the Pats go on to win multiple championships. I believe that this was true up until the second half of their first meeting with the Pats this season. The Jets were down big early in that game and then came back in the second half to almost win. The next time they met, the Jets beat the Pats. Going into this game the Jet players will definitely feel like they can beat the Pats. If I am a Jet fan, I would be more worried about them reacting to the playoff stage than intimidation by the Patriots.

Much of the reason the Jets are no longer intimidated by the Patriots is because of their coach. Eric Mangini came to the Jets in the offseason after being an assistant in New England under Bill Belichek. He has brought with him much of the discipline and ideals taught to him by Belichek. It had been widely reported that Mangini was encouraged not to take the Jets head coaching position by Belicheck and since he has taken it the two have not spoken. This has caused a media firestorm, and has seemed to pump up the Jet players. Following last years' debacle the Jet roster has rallied behind Mangini and his fresh coaching perspective. When the Jets won the game in New England in November, many of the players said that was for the coach. They feel he has been disrespected, much like they have been by the Patriots in years past.

This match-up is the classic example of a big/little brother scenario. The Patriots have been beating up on the Jets for years. Brady has been the star, while Chad Pennington has looked like a star at times, but been injured and average at others. New England has always had the great coach, and now the Jets feel like they have a great coach of their own. The Jets have a chip on their shoulder when it comes to the Patriots, while the Patriots do not have that same edge. As a result, the first touchdown in this game will be very important. If the Jets get it, their fire will turn into greater confidence. If the Pats get it, they may be able to impose their playoff will on the Jets even more.

When it comes down to it, this is a battle of the playoff veterans and the new kids on the block. While I feel that the Jets will come out with incredible passion and fire, the Patriot poise will be too resilient. In addition, the Brady/Belicheck duo will be too much for the Jets. Brady does not make mistakes in playoff games, and Belichek does not lose to average QBs (exception is the Denver game last year when a lot of weird things/calls happened). Like I said before, the Jets have a chance if they are able to run the ball and control the clock. In the end though, I think that the story will be the Pats running game and this will be a rather easy victory for New England.

I will be rooting for the Jets, but I don't see it happening for them. No matter what though, they had a wonderful season. The franchise is back on the winning track and they have build a new mentality going forward. Look back in history and you will see that most championship teams must first lose in the playoffs to bitter, but better rivals before they can overtake them. The Jets day may come, but I would be very surprised if it was this Sunday.

To my two favorite Jet fans:

Smurph....Right now I am watching ur Irish lose to LSU, your Jets are going to lose on Saturday, and ur Yanks haven't won in six seasons. Have you been given the Kappy curse or something?

Jordan....Hope ur surgery went well. I'm wishing ur Jets well, but I don't see it happenin. At least we will still have OUR Giants after this weekend! (Hopefully)

Friday....Theeeeeeeeee G-MEN

Before I go I just want to address the joke that is Notre Dame football. Can the national media please stop riding the Irish and giving them high preseason rankings. If they started the season #10 instead of #2, then they would have never been high enough to get a BCS bowl game this year. They have not won a bowl game since 1993, and have not beaten a top team in what feels like the same length of time. While I like Weiss, he has not changed the notre Dame culture like everyone tries to say. The program is still not elite. Let them beat a top five team, or win a bowl game before we annoint them back on the college football map. I am so glad I don;t have to hear about them for another eight months...

STKAFI