Halftime

This weekend is the NBA All Star Game. Obviously, this is a good time to assess the NBA season up until this point. There have been amazing individual performances (Gilbert Arenas), long winning streaks (Dallas and Phoenix) and a memorable fight. All that matter at the end of the season though is who ends up on top. With that in mind, I will examine the top contenders and a couple of sleepers.

The Favorite

Dallas Mavericks: Dallas has the best record in the league at 42-9. While they are not as flashy as the Phoenix Suns, they have provided more substance so far this season. They have a balanced offense with five guys averaging in double digits, and an underrated defense. They have three players, in Dirk Nowitzki, Jerry Stackhouse and Jason Terry that have the potential to carry the team offensively for long stretches. Josh Howard is having his best season of his career by far. They are a great free throw shooting team and have a young coach who has had a historic beginning to his coaching career. While they don't have the pizazz of years past, they are solid in every aspect and can win at almost any style of game.

The Sexy Pick

Phoenix Suns: When this team is clicking they are a sight to be seen. They are so fluid on offense. It seems like everyone in their rotation can shoot, run and pass. Steve Nash is in a middle of one of the greatest PG runs in NBA history. They are relentless with their offense, and most of the time seem unstoppable. There are two major negatives about this team right now though. Number one is their defense. They give up the fourth most points per game in the Western Conference. While some may say that is inflated because of their fast breaking style of basketball, it will be a major concern come playoffs. The games slows down in the playoffs, and the Suns will have to prove that they can win games held under 100 points. The other major concern is health, more specifically Steve Nash. He has been out lately with a back issue, and if that lingers it would affect the Suns' chances in a huge way. If Nash is healthy though, they will be a tough team to beat in the playoffs.

The CEO Who Won't Retire

San Antonio Spurs: Every year the critics come out and say that San Antonio is done. That Duncan has lost a step and that this will be the year that the Spurs finally fall off. All they have done so far this year is play .650 ball in the Western Conference. This is a playoff tested crew that is loaded with veterans. They have a Hall of Fame coach and possibly the best big man of the past 20 years, besides Shaq. They are a team you must pay attention to and they will be a major factor in the playoffs.

Kobes' Shoulders

Los Angelas Lakers: This team has two things working for it, the best player in the League and the best coach in the League. Last year they lost a tough seven game series to the Suns, when they thought they had it in the bag. You have to think that last years' experience will help them this time around. If the supporting cast can keep up with Kobe, this team will be a legitimate contender in the West.

Shhhhhh....hes Sleeping

Houston Rockets: The Rockets have potentially the best duo in the league with Yao Ming and Tracy McGrady. This team plays great defense and has shown grit all season long. There are a couple things that have to happen for this team to make a dent in the playoffs. Number one is for T-Mac and Yao to get and stay healthy. Number two is for T-Mac to prove he can play big when it counts. Those are two HUGE ifs, but if they come to fruition, then this team could make a run. If they can find that third scoring option (Bonzi Wells??) then this team will be built for a playoff push. They already have the defense and the size inside. The coach has been there before as well.

Best of the Least

The only teams with a shot to win it all out of the East are the Detroit Pistons, Cleveland Cavaliers and Miami Heat. Each team deserves basically only one thing said about them, strictly to justify their status.

Miami Heat: The defending champs are getting healthy.
Cleveland Cavs: Lebron
Detroit Pistons: Been there before and Webber improves that offense a bunch.

I could have potentially added a couple more Western teams (Denver, Utah, etc), but either they have not played well enough so far, or I don't think that they have enough to make a legit run in June.

NBA Stuff

• Who is the MVP so far? I know that there is a strong push for a Steve Nash three-peat. It is tough for me to argue against. Some people say Gilbert Arenas, and while I respect how good he has been, I am not going to give the MVP to a player from the Eastern Conference. Right now I am split between Kobe and T-Mac. Both have had to lead their team while dealing with significant injuries from their second best player. Both have lower PPG than in other years, but are doing the other things (defense, assists) to keep their respective teams winning.
• Big name that should be traded? Pau Gasol. He is still relatively young and can average 20-10 and two or three blocks. If I am Chicago I offer Ben Gordon, Nochioni, and a top five protected pick this June.
• Last year everyone said the Joakim Noah was a sure top three pick. Now that he returned to school and the spotlight is on him for a full year his stock is not as stable. I see him as one of the more unique players to ever come into the draft. he is the best player on his team, yet he might have the fourth best skills. He is a born leader, and the hardest working guy on the floor. He is 6'11", but rail thin. He has an awkward looking jumper, but is a great finisher. He will have trouble bodying up on stronger, wider PF/Cs, but he can go straight up on a guy and block as well as anyone I've seen. Everyone I talk to compares him to a different NBA player. I have heard everything from Chris Webber post microfracture, to Andrei Kirelinko, to Marcus Camby, to Josh Childress. I see him as a guy who will be a starter on a high level team, but never a go to scorer. He may never be considered the "best" player on a team, but he will be the leader of a team. He is one of those guys who can average 12-15 PPG and never have a play run for him. If he can improve his 15 foot jumper or develop one go-to post move he could develop into a 16-18 PPG scorer. He is a dedicated rebounder, who will pass the ball well and battle on defense. While he will never be a "franchise" player in the traditional sense of the word, I would still take him as a top five pick. I would like to see him go to Philly, Golden State, or Atlanta off the top of my head.

Others

• Big win for the Knicks. Win or lose in Golden State, they will go into the All Star break not feeling too bad about their chances.
• I told you the Yankees have handled this Bernie thing terribly. Either sign him to a major league deal or nothing! He has a very good year last year. He does not deserve to have to earn his way onto the team through a minor league contract.
• Speaking of the Yankees, why don't then just sign Mariano to an extension now? They have angered a few of the veterans with their treatment of Bernie, and now they are not gunna talk extension with Mariano until after the season? Give him two years and $25 million right now. If you have to give him $30, then do it! On the open market he will get a ton no matter what (barring a serious arm injury this season). He is still the best closer in the game and has been for 10 years.
• It did not take long into retirement for Tiki to start talking about hid old team and his ex-coach. He really is a class act.

STKAFI

Again...

I apologize for not writing in a few days. I have been going through a lot of stuff at work. Yesterday I quit my current job, and will be starting at a new shop on February 28. It's been a little hectic figuring out what I want to do. Also, I am not sure what my schedule will be at my new job. I intend to keep the blog going strong, but we will have to see what kind of hours they got me working. In any event, here are a few thoughts on this Tuesday morning in February...

• I am glad to see the Giants already shaking up their roster a bit. They released Luke Pettigout, Carlos Emmons, and Lavar Arrington. I am not sure how much this saved them exactly, considering how intricate the NFL salary cap is. I do know that it did save them some money this offseason though or they would not have done it. Pettigout and Emmons have had injury problems for a few years now. It reached the point where they caused more frustration due to injuries than progress on the field. Arrington suffered a major injury during this past season and may never be the same player again. Besides the injury and money aspect of these moves though, it sends a message to the fans and players. Jerry Reese (new GM) is going to be proactive to make this team better. There is going to be a new culture in the Giant locker room next year, which is something that is long overdue.
• I read a report yesterday that Tiki Barber was one of the most outspoken critics of Tom Coughlin from within the locker room last season. It reached the point where other players would tell him to "shut the fuck up." He complained about Coughlins' "old school" mentality and his desire for the players to practice in pads through out the season. I think Tiki should have shut up for two reasons. First of all, he was a fumbling machine prior to Coughlin coming in and changing where he held the ball. Second of all, if you are the best player on the team, and are planning on retiring after the season then shut up and play! What benefit can come out of bitching and moaning the whole time? Tiki had a great last couple of seasons with the Giants but he is not a Hall of Famer in my mind. He is a three time Pro Bowler with only 55 career rushing TDs. I do not see the Giants struggling nearly as much as people are making them out to without him next season. Could be a prime "Ewing Theory" example...
• Great article in this past weeks' SI about James Dolan, owner of the Knicks, Rangers, etc. Words can't express the dislike I have for this man and what he has done with my Knicks. At this point, its not that I don't think they can get better and be good relatively soon, but so much damage has been done that I do not want to support him or anything related to him (or Isiah for that matter).
• I hope to have a bigtime NBA article for you tomorrow.
• Spring Training is basically here...woo hoooooo!
• The Yankees did good to get rid of Sheffield and Randy Johnson from that clubhouse, but AROD is still going to be a major distraction. How don't they realize this already??
• Everyone is talking about the Durant/Oden debate for the #1 pick in the upcoming NBA draft. There is no doubt in my mind that they should be the the #1 and #2 picks respectively. As of right now I would still go with Oden, but I can not argue against Durant. I am old school in that when in doubt, go with the center. The only exception to this rule in the past 30 years is Michael Jordan and the Bulls. They were able to win multiple titles without much of any offensive production from their PF and C positions. In addition, Michael Jordan was picked after two centers in the draft and went on to become possibly the greatest player of all time. Durant has size as well though, which makes this decision even more vexing. It will be fun to watch, and they will both be great additions to this NBA, which is spilling over with great young talent.
• My Final Four picks on Feb 13.....Florida, UNC, Wisconsin, Georgetown (gotta pick at least one sleeper)

STKAFI

Sorry...

No posts in the past couple of days. I have had a lot going on at work and such. Not a bad time to take a break though onsidering the sports world is entrenched in a dead spot. Int any event here are a couple links to keep you all going on this Friday...

http://www.nytimes.com/2007/02/09/sports/othersports/09stephenson.html?ref=sports
I am officially starting the Sir Lance A Lot fan club...

http://select.nytimes.com/2007/02/09/sports/basketball/09araton.html?ref=sports
You need NyTimes insider, but this is a very interesting article comparing Isiah, and the 1980 Celtic players, turned GMs (Ainge, Bird, McHale).

http://www.nydailynews.com/sports/story/496074p-418009c.html
SELL THE KNICKS

http://www.nydailynews.com/sports/story/496004p-417958c.html
LETS GO METS

http://www.nydailynews.com/sports/story/496080p-418013c.html
You think Jamal Crawford is a supporter of gay marriage?

http://www.nypost.com/seven/02092007/sports/knicks/curry_a_new_member_of_the_thomas_cult_affair_knicks_peter_vecsey.htm
As the Daily News so elequently proclaimed...."Crazy Eddy"

http://www.nypost.com/seven/02092007/sports/yankees/one_more_time_yankees_george_king.htm
Bern Baby Bern

http://sports.espn.go.com/espn/columns/story?columnist=wojciechowski_gene&id=2758663
I love that the Cowboys are in my division...

http://sports.espn.go.com/ncaa/recruiting/news/story?id=2759650
Can someone explain how a former player calling a recruit could be a violation?

http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2007/writers/paul_forrester/02/07/lakers.notes/index.html
Kobe the kid

http://www.nypost.com/seven/02092007/news/nationalnews/csi_probe_in_siren_shocker_nationalnews_todd_venezia.htm
The boyfriend/husband/whatever had some sneaky business in the kid and Anna Nicole? Thoughts?

http://youtube.com/watch?v=iOnZsh9rp20
Wow....talk about putting you foot in ur mouth (she prolly dipped it in blue cheese first)...

STKAFI

How the top QBs of the past 25 years stack up in their first two years as a starter against my Giants QB....

gms com att % yds y/att td int

ELWAY

1984 den 15 214 380 56.3 2598 6.8 18 15

1985 den 16 327 605 54.0 3891 6.4 22 23

AIKMAN

1990 dal 15 226 399 56.6 2579 6.5 11 18

1991 dal 12 237 363 65.3 2754 7.6 11 10

MONTANA

1980 sfo 15 176 273 64.5 1795 6.6 15 9

1981 sfo 16 311 488 63.7 3565 7.3 19 12

FAVRE

1992 gnb 15 302 471 64.1 3227 6.9 18 13

1993 gnb 16 318 522 60.9 3303 6.3 19 24

MARINO

1984 mia 16 362 564 64.2 5084 9.0 48 17

1985 mia 16 336 567 59.3 4137 7.3 30 21

PEYTON

1998 ind 16 326 575 56.7 3739 6.5 26 28

1999 ind 16 331 533 62.1 4135 7.8 26 15

ELI

2005 nyg 16 294 557 52.8 3762 6.8 24 17

2006 nyg 16 301 522 57.7 3244 6.2 24 18

As soon as the game was over on Sunday I got excited. I am not worried about Eli, I am excited. I know that this is the make or break year. If he does not show signs this year, then things will change. If that happens, then we start over and I am ok with that. If he shows the progress that I expect, then I will really be pumped. I liked Elis' reaction to his brother winning. "I'm not talking about him. It's his night. I congratulated him. It was a good game. Let's leave it at that." For once he expressed some real emotion. He knows the backlash that is going to come down on him, and he is irritated. I hope he molds this irritation and envy into harder work and better performance. The bottom line is that people wanted more out of Eli in his first two seasons. He not only did not perform to the level of expectations, but he had sit watch while Ben Roethlisberger and his brother won Super Bowls. Two people that he will forever be compared to for different reasons. This upcoming season is where we find out what Eli will become. He has already proven that he is not Ryan Leaf or Akili Smith. What he has not proven is whether he is David Carr or Troy Aikman. We will find that out soon though. I just can't wait, so my Giants can either move on to another or hang on to a future Super Bowl champ.

FYI....The formatting of the blog is not always easy to read when it comes to listing statistics. If it comes out bad, just know this about them. The only two QBs on the list above that showed considerably better stats than Eli in their first two seasons as starters are Peyton and Marino. The others are just about on par with the kid. Also note that I omitted Steve Young because he became a starter at such an older age, which definitely skews the statistics. I also omitted Carson Palmer because he is so early in his career as well, though he has clearly shown much more progress than Eli thus far.

STKAFI

Thoughts on the Big Game...

• Such a sloppy game. The Super Bowl has not fluidity to it in the first place will all the extra TV timeouts, but this first quarter was bananas. It felt like there was another commercial ever minute or so. So many turnovers. The rain definitely did not help this either..
• Got to give credit to Peyton. He threw a pick early, but settled down to play a very efficient game. In horrible weather conditions he threw accurately, and controlled the tempo of the game perfectly.
• Speaking of the tempo, I think that is where the Colts and Manning have truly developed. In the past they used the no-huddle to rush the defenders and throw down the field. Now they don't only throw down the field, but they run the ball a ton and throw so much underneath. When you combine that with their no huddle, they just wear down the defense. They did it against New England and they did it again last night. They are like a Python slowly squeezing the life out of a defense. It is really remarkable to watch how in control that offense is at all times.
• I messed up on that Grossman prediction. What I should of said is that he not only has to be solid, but he has to be able to at least make a couple of throws down the field. The Bears hid Grossman in the first half, and then when they needed him to make a couple plays in the second half he could not get it down. He under threw two balls that were picked off, not the mention the two or three snaps that he fumbled. Just a gross performance.
• Two things I did not understand about the Bears. One is that they kept such a conservative playbook. Not just that they did not throw the ball down the field, but nothing they did seemed to have any creativity. Considering how inept they were at moving the ball, you would think that they would try to change things up with a reverse or something of that nature. Secondly, and in a related topic, why don't they put Hester in on offense? He is obviously one of the most dangerous open field runners in the sport. Why not try to get him open on a screen or an end around? Something I think they will address and use better next season..
• Phil Simms kept on harping on the fact that the Bears were not blitzing. It seemed like they were blitzing early and as soon as they got burned on the total breakdown in coverage on the 55 yard TD pass, they backed off. Peyton had all the time in the world most plays and the running backs had lanes to run all night. The Bears must be regretting that they did not play more aggressively both on offense and defense.
• Besides all of the crazy turnovers in the first half though, the Colts played a great game. The defense dominated, they ran the ball at will, and most importantly, Peyton played a smart and efficient game. He deserves this Super Bowl and all the acclaim that he will receive as a result.

Other stuff..

• What ever happened to Duke and UCONN being college basketball superpowers??
• Pitchers and catchers are only a couple weeks away....
• If you are the Bears, do you feel in your heart of hearts that you can win a Super Bowl with Rex Grossman?
• I can only imagine how many box pools were screwed up by a) the botched extra point b) viniateri missing a field goal and c) Dungy not kicking the field goal at the end of the game, not to "show up" his boy Lovie...
• Knicks play only like two home game in the next month....
• The Police are performing at the Grammys next Sunday....oh yea!

STKAFI

Soopa Soopa

This is most likely my last post before Super Sunday, so I guess I have to do some sort of a prediction/analysis for the game. What's the point though? Everybody and their mother has already given this game to the Colts. After all, the Colts have the Hall of Fame quarterback and the Bears have "the worst Super Bowl QB of all time." The Colts come from the mighty AFC and the Bears played in a conference where an 8-8 team can make the playoffs. The Colts have been knocking on the door for a few years now. This is their year!!

Well, I don't buy it. I mean, I understand the reasoning for the Colts being seven point favorites, but I feel that the media is underestimating the Bears' chances. The number one reason I feel this way is the turnover battle. During the regular season the Colts forced 25 turnovers. The Bears forced 43. The Bears lead the entire NFL by a wide margin. I admit that there is an obvious difference in these two defenses' styles of play and their caliber of opponent. When you are going up against an offense as potentially dominant as the Colts though you need one or both of two things. Ball control on offense and turnovers on defense. The Colts have the type of offense that will move the ball on anybody. In my opinion, the key for the Bears will not only be their ability to force turnovers, but their ability to turn them into points. The Bears have a terribly physical and ball-hawking defense. Once they get their way they are not satisfied. They not only want the ball, but they want to put it in the end zone. I see them forcing three to four turnovers and turning one of those into either a touchdown or providing their offense with extremely good field position.

The other way the Bears are going to make life easier for their offense is through their special teams. Everyone is talking about Devon Hester, the Bears return man. He had something like six return touchdowns this season. He will have a huge impact, but not necessarily through his returns. The Colts have heard for two weeks now how good Hester is. They know they can not stop him through their typical coverage. They are going to have to try different things to contain him. Every punt or kick is going to be to the sidelines. I promise you that either a punt will be muffed to the sideline, or a kick will go out of bounds. If they try to squib it and Hester catches it in stride, then its even worse than kicking it deep. He will get it while the Colt defenders are just crossing the 50 yard line. If they try to pop it up high, then there will be minimal depth, and it will turn out to be not much better than just kicking it out of bounds. Basically he is going to put a ton of pressure on the Colt special teams, a unit that has not played very well this season.

The major negative for the Bears in this game that everyone is talking about is Rex Grossman. There is not much I can say to support him based on fact. In my mind, I think that he is the type of guy who can preform well in this game. I base this on his ability to get hot and not be affected by pressure. There is a chance he totally bombs, but it will not be as a result of too much pressure. I think he is the kind of guy who is calm under pressure, but is so nutty that just makes dumb throws sometimes. Not particularly who I would want on my team, but not a bad guy to have in a big game. Who knows, he could have four picks, or four TDs. Again, there is no factual evidence of this, just my opinion based on his play. Interesting, check these stats...

Grossman 2006 3193 yds 23 TDs 20 INTs
Simms 1986 3487 yds 21 TDs 22 INTs (up until this point in his career he had more INTs than TDs and was though of as "soft" by the NY media)

I'm not saying Grossman is going to turn in Phil Simms, but enough of the talk of him being the "worst" Super Bowl QB. He is not very good, but as we have seen in the past, one game can change a career. Simms had probably greatest performance by a QB in a Super Bowl (22-25 268 Yds 3 TDs 0 INTs). I would be just as shocked as you if Grossman performed that well. I do not think he will have a horrible game though.

Lastly, I think the Bears' pride means something. Not only are they being trashed nationally as inferior to the Colts, but they have been trashed all season in Chicago as inferior to the 1985 Super Bowl team. This means something to me. I think they want to prove to both their fans and the country that they deserve their place in the Super Bowl. They have no pressure, as everyone has already written them off more than once.

I think that the Bears need to make a physical statement early in this game. Smack the Colts in the mouth and see if they respond. If Peyton comes back and throws a TD it could be a long night. I think that it will be a fun game, but the Bears will pull the upset. Peyton will play ok, but not as well as he would like.

Bears 31 Colts 24

Carmelo

I think that this is such a joke. Carmelo has averaged over 20 points per game every year in his career and has gotten better each season. He is leading the league in scoring this season. I am not going to go too crazy because Yao and Boozer will probably not be playing in the game because of injury. If David Stern does not pick Melo as a replacement then he should be embarrassed and the league should be as well. Let's see what happens, but everyone knows that fight or no fight Carmelo deserves to be on the West All-Star team. Period.

All-Stars

Obviously I will have more on this when the game happens, but it is great to see guys like Kobe, KG, Iverson, Duncan, and Shaq on the rosters. They have each been on the team at least seven years. There is something about NBA generations that is interesting to me. These five players (and possible Kidd and T-Mac) represent the the best of our time. Ten years from now we could be saying the same about Lebron, Melo, and Dwight Hoaward (amongst others), just like 10 years ago we were watching Malone, Jordan, and Hakeem on their way out.

STKAFI

Celtic Pride

I got a bunch of readers that a bigtime Celtic fans, so I am not going to act like I am some sort of expert on the city or the franchise. All I know is that this is a city that booed the likes of Ted Williams and Bill Russell, arguably the towns' two greatest athletes ever to play there. They can be ruthless. In addition, Boston is also a place that is notoriously consumed with its own teams and often oblivious to the rest of the nation (not that anyone there will admit this). The fact remains though that when you look at television ratings, Boston consistently has much lower ratings than the most of the rest of the nation when two neutral teams are playing in a league final.

Why does this matter? Well, last night Kobe Bryant and the Lakers played in Boston. The Lakers, who were public enemy #1 in Boston 20 years ago. The Lakers came in and beat the Celtics easily, handing them their 13th straight loss. This is not what stuck out in my mind though. The fans were cheering Kobe and chanting such things as "Kobe" and "MVP." You rarely ever see a visiting player get treated like this, and the last place I thought that this would ever happen would be in Boston. Say what you want about holding out for Durant and Oden, but this franchise is a mess from top to bottom. They have reached such levels of irrelevancy, that the fans are chanting "MVP" towards opposing players.

Look, I don't know what they are going to do to fix this. It seems like every day there is a new rumor out there. They have enough intriguing, young players to complete a blockbuster trade. I think that the first thing they need to do is fire Doc Rivers. He is the most overrated coach in the league. The guy won Coach of the Year in his first season, so he has this label of being a solid coach. The fact remains though that in his first year his team went 42-42, and in his entire coaching career he has never won a playoff series. He was fired in Orlando after losing 10 straight game (the Magic ended up losing 19 straight), and not he has lost 13 straight in Boston.

Beyond that, I don't know. Is Danny Ainge worth keeping? He has drafted some solid players, but nothing else worth mentioning. Are the Al Jeffersons and Gerald Greens going to pan out? Is Paul Pierce worth keeping through this horrific season? The Celtics once owned this town, and now they are not only well behind the Sox, but also behind the Patriots. I know a lucky bounce in the lottery can change all this, but Celtic fans know better than anyone that you can't count on that. Obviously, I would love to hear the thoughts of Celtic fans concerning all of this...

• Part of me envies the Celtics. My Knicks are playing well enough that Isiah just may avoid the axe. I just love hearing that he is going to vote for all Pistons in the all-star voting because he is "biased" towards them. Can you please get this loser out of the Garden??
• The Yankees have handled this whole Bernie Williams deal poorly. Either sign the guy to a major league contract, or tell him you have no use for him. All they are doing now is setting themselves up for the media and fans to rally behind Bernie in Spring Training. Once that happens, the pressure will be on them, and they will have found one more way to turn their clubhouse into a circus. If I was them, I would just let him go, but I understand if you are a Yankee fan that you are emotionally attached to him.
• Urlacher came out and said in the New York Times that the grass at Dolphin Stadium looks like it is going to play fast. Not a good omen for the Bears...
• With that being said I have an increasingly strong feeling that the Bears are going to pull it out...Don't ask me why.

STKAFI

Now or (Almost) Never

Losing in the final round of a playoff, whether it is the Super Bowl, World Series, or NBA Finals is always tough for a ballclub. After putting months of time and effort into a season, finishing second is often the most bitter pill to swallow. There are two common reactions the following season to this scenario. One is to begin the following season in a haze so to speak, never get your game to the same consistent level as the season before and end finishing up worse than the season prior. The other scenario (often in younger teams) is to use that experience of the year before as a spring board to storm through the regular season and either win it all, or come close once again. This is often seen in both the NBA and MLB, but not in the NFL.

Since the Buffalo Bills lost Super Bowl XXVIII to the Cowboys, a Super Bowl loser has not returned to the big game in at least five years. In that same period, this has happened twice in the NBA and four times in Major League Baseball. Some might say this is just random and does not mean much. I do not agree. In the fifteen years prior to Super Bowl XXVIII, the losing team in the Super Bowl returned in less that five years on three different occasions (Skins, Broncos and Bills). The rates were consistent over the past 30 years for both the NBA and MLB.

One potential reason for this the new collective bargaining agreement for the NFL in 1992. This was groundbreaking for the league. A hard salary cap was instituted, along with the advent of free agency and tremendous TV revenue sharing. Teams had more and equal money to spend, but it was increasingly tougher to keep great teams together. Free agency and the gradual rise in salaries decreased the chances of the great dynasties of teams from the past. While there is some evidence of this, there is no correlation with teams that have won the Super Bowl. In the past 15 years, four teams (Cowboys, Packers, Broncos, Patriots) have won a Super and returned a year or two later to play in it again.

The real reason in my mind is the development of the Super Bowl itself. It is hard to believe, but the Super Bowl was not nearly the spectacle it is today 20 years ago. It was still a big deal, but there was not two weeks in between the championship games and Super Bowl Sunday, there was not "Media Day", the commercial craze was not at this level, and the halftime show/pregame festivites had not reached its peak of today. Basically, the Super Bowl has developed into much more of a circus. The 1990's are where this change can be seen clearest.

When a team reaches the Super Bowl, it has to deal with an event that it has never come close to dealing with before. There is nothing that a team can do to truly prepare for the enormity of Super Bowl week. The distractions off the field are plentiful, and the game itself is very different as well. The TV timeouts are more rapid and longer than in a regular game. The halftime show is twice as long. The pregame festivities are longer, and the crowd is truly bipartisan. Nothing about the game itself has any fluidity or regularity to it.

Different coaches have different philosophies on how to treat their players during Super Bowl week. Some choose to give them more freedom and let them relax, while some want them locked up in their rooms, away from the distractions. There is really no standard protocol on how to treat your team. Some players react better to certain tactics, some don't. The winner always looks great, while the loser is left to question itself.

The bottom line about what the Super Bowl has become is an event that is hyped more than any game of the year, and then it is over in the blink of an eye. It feels like football being played within a party or concert. The winning team feels great, but the losing team feels much worse than after a normal loss. The entire season is over, and the game probably feels just like a blur within a crazy week. Something like graduation after senior week. All of this craziness, and then its over before you realize.

While it is tough to come back the next season after losing in the finals in both the NBA and MLB, it is different for two reasons. For one, while they both are surrounded by hoopla, it is nothing close to the Super Bowl. Number two is that the Super Bowl is one game. It over and done with in one night. A series can last a week and the players have the time to understand what they are playing and take it all in properly. The shock of losing is not quite as sudden.

I have always said that in football you have to start the season with the aim of making the Super Bowl. You can't think of winning it until you are there, because too much weird and new stuff happens. A Super Bowl loss though can really effect a franchise in a negative way. Its tougher to quantify what happens in the subsequent seasons, but something about losing the game in this age of Super Bowl hysteria has had a lasting effect. I doubt Lovie, Peyton, Rex, and the rest of the players and coaches competing on Sunday are thinking like this. The one thing they must realize though is if you lose, this could the only chance you get. Below are the NBA Finals, World Series and Super Bowl competitors for the past 15 years. Teams who returned in less than five years in bold...


Super Bowls

Winners Losers

XXVIII Cowboys Bills
XXIX Niners Chargers
XXX Cowboys Steelers
XXXI Packers Patriots
XXXII Broncos Packers
XXXIII Broncos Falcons
XXXIV Rams Titans
XXXV Ravens Giants
XXXVI Patriots Rams
XXXVII Bucs Raiders
XXXVIII Patriots Panthers
XXXIX Patriots Eagles
XL Steelers Seahawks


World Series

1993 Blue Jays Phillies
1995 Braves* Indians
1996 Yankees Braves
1997 Marlins Indians
1998 Yankees Padres
1999 Yankees Braves
2000 Yankees Mets
2001 D’Backs Yankees
2002 Angels Giants
2003 Marlins Yankees
2004 Red Sox Cardinals
2005 White Sox Astros
2006 Cardinals Tigers


NBA Finals

1993 Bulls Suns
1994 Rockets Knicks
1995 Rockets Magic
1996 Bulls Sonics
1997 Bulls Jazz
1998 Bulls Jazz
1999 Spurs Knicks
2000 Lakers Pacers
2001 Lakers Sixers
2002 Lakers Nets
2003 Spurs Nets
2004 Pistons Lakers
2005 Spurs Pistons
2006 Heat Mavs

*The Braves had lost the 1991 and 1992 World Series before winning in 1995...
STKAFI (Free Kobe!!!)

(Marvelous?) Marvin

During the AFC Championship Game I said something that riled a few people up. The words I used exactly were "Marvin Harrison is overrated." Obviously I was wasted and rooting for the Patriots at the time. Everyone got so up in arms about it that I might as well shut up, even though I knew Harrison had never came up big when the Colts needed it in the playoffs. Afterwards, I researched Harrison and a few other relevant receivers and found the information I was looking for. Harrison is having a Hall of Fame career, but he has continually not shown up when the playoffs rolled around. Up until this Super Bowl, one might sat he is the receiver equivalent of the quarterback that has thrown him the majority of his touchdown passes.

What would you define as overrated? In my mind there are two main examples of an athlete being overrated. One is the old cliche of a player continually is considered to be underrated by so many people, that he/she is thus overrated. When I proclaimed that Harrison was overrated, I was met with responses of how he was underrated. Harrison has been overshadowed by contemporaries such as Randy Moss and Terrell Owens, receivers with similar statistics that run their mouths much more in the press. As a result, the "cool" thing to do these days in the media is to label Harrison as underrated compared to these loud mouth receivers that receive more attention than quiet Harrison.

The other common example of an overrated player is someone who puts up a bunch of great numbers, but does not show that same production in the most important of situations and games. While I can not give every example from regular season games where Harrison made a great catch, I have a good sample size (13 games) of Harrisons' production, or lack there of, in the playoffs. Below is a comparison of Harrison and his contemporaries, as well as other top receivers from the past 25 years.

Player Gms Catches Yds/gm TDs 100yd gms
Marvin Harrison 13 55 59.7 2 1
Randy Moss 8 35 90.4 9 3
Terrell Owens 10 50 70 4 3
Torry Holt 10 47 63 4 2
Hines Ward 10 57 76.1 8 4
Jerry Rice 28 151 80.2 22 8
Cris Carter 14 63 61.4 8 2
Michael Irvin 16 87 82.1 8 6

The numbers pretty much speak for themselves. Now you can blame Harrisons' QB if you want. We all know the playoff problems that he has had. The fact remains though that Harrison has the worst numbers of any of these receivers, with a couple dwarfing him. Not only that, but almost every other guy listed has a signature moment in the postseason. Most noticeably, Hines Ward and Jerry Rice each have Super Bowl MVPs, while Owens had a legendary Super Bowl effort in a losing cause. Maybe Harrison is waiting for the Super Bowl to show his true playoff greatness...

Maybe I am totally of base. Maybe Harrison is not "overrated", but instead just not "clutch." All I know is that I do not care about the numbers that a player on my team puts up. I never cared about Michael Strahan breaking (if you call it that) the season sack record. I cared about Strahan sacking Trent Dilfer in Super Bowl XXXIV. If I am a Colt fan, this game is where guys like Harrison and Manning define their careers. The numbers are great on paper and fun to watch, but the Super Bowl is where they will be remembered.

Bring on the hate....All I know is that in a big spot, I would rather have any one of those guys split out wide over Marvin. Show me something this Sunday and I can change my tune....

STKAFI

Who's the Man?

I was going to write a post comparing Tiger Woods and Roger Federer. This was a big weekend for both of them. Tiger extended his PGA Tour win streak to seven consecutive tournaments, while Federer won his third consecutive Grand Slam and his sixth out of the past seven. They are both on remarkable runs and deserve all of the attention that they are each getting.

Comparing the two is a lot of fun, but it leads to nowhere. There is no way that anyone can convince me that one is more dominant at his respective sport than the other. The reason that it is a fun topic to debate is because they each have such amazing statistics to back up their case. The negatives for each player are so few and are so tough to magnify enough to compare them to the strengths.

I enjoy watching and playing both tennis and golf. I would have to say though that my loyalty resides with tennis. I played a lot when I was younger and I started watching it at a much younger age than golf. Again, I will make it clear that I think Woods and Federer are on the same level, but I am more sensitive to Federers' case. I feel like he does not get the full respect and attention he deserves. There are two reasons for this. One is that he plays a sports that is not tremendously popular in the U.S. Golf is much more popular that tennis, in participation, TV ratings and gate attendance. As a result the media puts more attention to the sports, and as a result Tiger. The other reason is that Tiger is from the US, while Federer is from Switzerland. It is natural for the US born player to get more attention from the US media. In any event, slowly but surely Federer is beginning to get the attention that he deserves to the the remarkable things that he is doing on the court.

ESPN.com decided to have two of their writers each compose a short blurb about why Tiger is better and why Federer is better. The reason I bring this up is because I think that Jason Sobel (case for Tiger) wrote one of the more horrendous pieces that I have ever seen. He showed a lack of a basic concept of comparison across sports. Here is the link for reference...

http://sports.espn.go.com/golf/news/story?id=2746501

When comparing different sports, you have to acknowledge the difference in sports from the beginning and debate under those constraints. For instance, in baseball a good batting average is .300 or better. That means a batter is getting a hit 30% of his at-bats. In basketball, a good field goal percentage is 50%, meaning a player makes 50% of his shots taken. From the beginning of the argument, it has to be recognized that this type of disparity of stats makes these sports different. Whether one is harder than the other means nothing. You have to compare the individuals' level of dominance within the sport to the other athletes' level of dominance within their sport.

Sobel basically just makes the case that Federer faces one player per match, while Tiger goes up against 155. This argument is so ridiculous. If he wants to twist the circumstances like this, then I will say that Federer has to win every single match he plays. He does not have the ability to be down six strokes after one round (like Tiger was in the Buick Invitational). If that was the case, Federer would be eliminated in the first round. The argument I am making is just as crazy as Sobels' though. The bottom line is that Tiger is in his own world when it comes to golf. He has 12 Majors (18 is the all time record) and he is only 31. He has potentially about 15 more years of performance at or close to his prime. Federer has 10 Grand Slams (14 is the all time record) and he is only 25. He has potentially about six more years at or close to his prime. Both players should destroy these records.

Crazy Stats for each...

Tiger
Won each major twice
Won the "Tiger Slam" (held each Major at the same time, but not in same year)
Won seven consecutive PGA Tour tournaments (and counting...)
77 career tournament wins

Federer
First player to three-peat at the US Open and Wimbledon in the same three year span
Made the Finals of seven consecutive Grand Slams (and counting...)
Won 46 career titles
A record of 254-15 since the beginning of 2004

Federer has not won the French Open yet, which is the only blemish on his record. When comparing him to the other all-time tennis greats though, this is common (John McEnroe, Jimmy Connors and Pete Sampras never won the French, Bjorn Borg never won the US Open). I could get into more depth about this, but again, I think an argument is on this is dumb. Both are great athletes and these might be the two best we see in our lifetime.

Other notes

• Some people hate on Rafael Nadal (only won on clay) and Phil Mickleson (man boobs), but you have to respect the fact that each have won multiple Majors within these great runs of both Tiger and Federer. Nadal and Mickelson have had the unfortunate luck of their primes coinciding with possibly the greatest players of all time in their sports. What these guys are doing will always be underrated. Mickelson might have more prime left than Nadal considering that golfers have a longer shelf-life and small tennis playes peak early in their careers (Michael Chang, Leyton Hewitt, etc).
• Great performance by Jamal Crawford on Friday night in the Garden. It was fun to be there and watch, but it still bothered me. Its not like he was taking better shots than usual. He was still taking the same idiotic shots, but they just happened to be going in. Last night he started the game 1-9 from the field.
• Everyone is doubting the Spurs, but they are still playing .650 ball...
• One good thing for the Bears...the Super Bowl will be outdoors and on grass..
• Happy belated birfday Relaxo..
• Helton to the Red Sox would leave them a little heavy on lefties right? Manny is the best right handed hitter in the AL, but what about when his "knee" acts up midway through the season...Still worth it for the Sox though..

STKAFI

G.O.A.T.

For the past few years Peyton Manning has been putting up ridiculous numbers. He has routinely ripped off 30 TD, 3-1 TD to INT ratios, 4,000 yards, 65% completion percentages, and 12 win seasons. It really has been an amazing run. His one downfall, and it is a glaring one, has been his inability to perform in the playoffs. It was such a deficiency, that in any argument concerning Peytons' place in history, I could always being that up and shut the other person up. The Quarterback position is the one in all of sports where winning a championship means the most. While great players at other positions can get a pass when it comes to a title, QB gets none. To be brief, the reason for this is basically that if the QB plays well enough then the team is always going to at least have a chance to win. The same can not be said for a wide receiver, a defensive end, or even a running back. In other sports there is no position that is so clearly the figurehead of every team, with the exception of possibly the goalie in hockey.

Back to my initial thought. If Peyton wins on February 4th, instead of the old Brady/Manning argument, the more popular one amongst fans, friends and "experts" will be is Peyton the greatest of all time. If he loses, he will still have a greater respect from his critics as a result of beating the Patriots, but he will still lack the championship he needs to be in the argument of the greatest QB of all time. I know this is premature because even if Manning wins, Brady could win a couple more and then this debate will reach even higher levels. All I am saying though is that, all these years of being able to say Manning has never won anything in his life besides personal accolades unfortunately may be over.

As you can tell I will be rooting for the Bears in the Super Bowl. I don't know why I dislike Manning. Maybe its because he is so much better than his little brother. Maybe it is because I like the dynamic of him being the stat guy and Brady being the winner. Oh, maybe its the fact that when Manning loses he throws everyone else under the bus instead of himself (his O-line, defensive guys holding, etc). OK, I will stop with that. Anyway, we will see next Sunday, but I am preparing myself to not have a rebuttal for all the Manning lovers. At least until next years playoffs....haha.

FYI....I will not do anymore Super Bowl stuff until mid-next week. It gets ridiculous.

The Kid

His name is Roger Federer. I do not care what anyone else says. He is on the same level of dominance as Tiger Woods. I will have more on him after he wins the Australian Open over the weekend.

Willie Ball

Glad to see Willie Randolph is getting an extension from the Mets. I did not want to see this drag into spring training. I was not in love with Willie from the beginning, but I thought he did a good job in the playoffs. He deserves this and I am happy he will be around longer.

Darfur

I went to a fundraising event last night for Darfur. Here is the link if you wanna help out...
http://www.helpdarfurnow.org/

STKAFI

The Tele

I can honestly say that DVR has changed my life. About a year ago I moved out of my parents place where we had the same cable system for the past 10 years. Not only is is not digital cable, but we had it because there was a deal within our building. This happens plenty in NYC, where a specific cable company will give a reduced rate to specific buildings with the hope of getting the majority of potential cable customers from there. In any event, while many of my friends were started to get TIVO and DVR and digital cable, I was stuck on this old cable provider. When I moved into my new place, my roommate and I each got LCD/HD TVs, and we purchased the most expensive cable package there is, including DVR and HD. After my lull of about five years where I pretty much just watched HBO, MTV, and sports I was now open to a whole new world.

Now I can honestly say that my DVR is consistently packed with shows I love to watch. They include everything from new episodes of current faves (24, Scrubs), reruns of old classics (West Wing, 90210) and random events that we make sure to label as save until manually delete (Victoria Secret Fashion Show, Journey: Classic in Concert). The best part about DVR though is definitely the ability to keep up to date on my current crop of shows. Below is the list of them. Understand that they refelct not only a 23 year old male, but also a kid that grew up with two older sisters and as a result was watching 90210, Melrose Place, and Real World as early as the third grade. Anyway, here they are (in no particular order):

Scrubs
The Office
24
Grey's Anatomy
What About Brian
American Idol

In addition, I periodically have other shows in the DVR such as Desperate Housewives and My Name is Earl. Looking at this list it is interesting to see the distribution of networks on this list. NBC has the comedies, ABC has the corny/feminine shows, and FOX has the action/entertainment. There are reasons for my interest in each show, but the one I will elaborate on is the one most popular with this group I presume......24.

There are three major things that draw me to 24. First and foremost is Jack Bauer. The man (if you can call him mortal) is a true gangster. We have seen him fake his own death, kill massive amounts of people, torture people in the most bad ass ways, receive incredible amounts of torture, and have the greatest instincts of any terror fighting American in history. He is truly a TV character that will live in infamy.

Another important aspect to 24 is its relevance to society. While many of the story lines are ridiculous (more on this), they are based in a topic that is on everybodys minds in the world today; terrorism. Ever since 9/11, terror has been the #1 topic of politicians and as a guy living in NYC, it is still a relevant fear/thought in all of us. 24 is not only about terrorism and its prevention, but it lays out the paradoxes that our government faces. Issues that are true in real life as well, such as just case, aggression, and human rights. While 24 often goes to extents not seen in the real world, the basic dilemmas that the show confronts is something that hits home for a lot of average citizens and government officials.

The often ridiculous levels that 24 goes to is also a reason for watching the show. The absolute absurdity that this all happens in one day, combined with the perpetual bad luck of Jack Bauer and the tremendous amount of pain he receives/dishes out often reaches humorous levels. That craziness, plus characters such a the constantly conflicted Cloe make 24 not only an action adventure, but also a supplier of consistent laughs.

Random DVR note:

I am very pumped to DVR the Federer/Roddick semifinal match from the Australian Open. I remember when I was younger trying to set my alarm to wake up for an Andre Agassi match in Australia and sleeping right through it. This time I plan to wake up and watch this potential classic before work so the result is not ruined. Plus, I can fast forward to the key parts of the match. Oh, DVR...

• I have not really gotten into Prison Break. I know a bunch of people are really into it though..
• So far I would saw I like the Arizona Cardinals as the best chance for immediate success with their new head coach. They have a ton of young offensive talent and are bringing in a guy in Wisenhunt that coached under Bill Cowher in Pittsburgh and he is bringing along with him Russ Grimm, who was also a bigtime assistant in Pittsburgh. Cohesion within the coaching staff is an under-rated aspect to success in a new coach. Wisenhunt seems to be building the kind of staff that he wants so far...
• The Raiders are still in a lot of trouble. Before I believe in them, changes need to come from the top. Al Davis needs to pull back a little and let people do their jobs before he jumps down their throat. An interesting and random part of the Bellichick book was the part about Al Davis. The book on him is that he is constantly evaluating his coaches, fornt office, players, etc. No like your typical team, but instead on a daily basis instead of over a longer period of time. Unless there is a strong enough head coach in there to keep some sort of reins on Davis, this constant pressure from the owner causes many players, coaches, etc to wilt and their performance drops continuously...
• The Knicks are in big trouble with the Suns comin to town and Marbury likely sittin the game out...
  
  STKAFI

Glad You Brought This Up...

I was not thinking of this because I am not sold on him being done, but the Parcells legacy and his place in history is a fascinating one. He is one of an exclusive group to win more than one Super Bowl, as well as part of an exclusive group of bringing more than one franchise to the Super Bowl. He is arguably considered the greatest head coach in the history of both the Jets and the Giants. He also won his last Super Bowl in 1990-1991, and brought as much controversy as winning to his coaching spots post-Giants. His least impressive job was without a doubt the Cowboys, which has to be considered unsuccessful. Even for the a guy not named Parcells, this job would not be praised. In the pantheon of NFL coaches, Parcells is up there but without a doubt behind a few.

I will rank him against Bellichick, Shanahan, Holmgren, Walsh, Gibbs, Levy, Seifert, Johnson.

1. Bill Bellichik
2. Bill Walsh
3. Bill Parcells
4. Joe Gibbs
5. Mike Holmgren
6. Mike Shanahan
7. George Seifert
8. Marv Levy

Bellichick and Walsh are on a level of their own. Each have three Super Bowls and are known as "geniuses" and innovators (Walsh-offense, Bellichick-defense).

I rank Parcells over Gibbs for a couple of reasons. From the time Parcells entered the NFL as a head coach until this season, every season that the two of them were head coaches at the same time, they were in the NFC East together. Thus their head to head record means a lot. Parcells has a 14-9 record against Gibbs. In addition, two of Gibbs wins came in Parcells first season where his team won only three games total, and two other came in the strike season of 1987 when the Skins won it all and the Giants struggled immensely with replacement players. In their one postseason match-up the Giants were victorious in the 1986-87 NFC title game.

I have Parcells over the rest for many differing reasons. This is truly a great debate. One thing I will concede to any opposition is that Parcells and his legacy may be over-rated due to the fact that he coached a majority of his career in New York.

Oh....and I love the Melo/AI connection. The West is soooo nasty though, who know how far they can go....?

STKAFI

Nice Input

I liked what I heard on the Patriot hate. Two points stood out for me, in that I should have realized them from the beginning. Number one is that it is lonely at the top. No matter who the team or person is there are always going to be people trying to bring them down. If not now, then at some point in the future. The other point I thought was very valid was the difference between envy and hate. There are definitely a lot of people out there that are envious of the success, and don't really dislike the Pats themselves. There are people out there that are more than envious though and actually dislike the team though. I think it is a combo of both, with envy being the stronger emotion at work. This would be directly connected with the "its lonely at the top" point as well.

As far as the Yankee comparison, I see one glaring difference that makes these two franchises so different. The NFL has a hard salary cap and Major League Baseball does not have a salary cap at all. As a result, the Yankees are free spenders and the Patriots are probably the most fiscally responsible team in the NFL. I am not trying to rip the Yankees on this, but my point is this. There are a lot of fans throughout the country that are envious of the Yankees success. There are also a lot of fans out there that don't see the MLB as having a true level playing field. The Yankees have the ability to spend more money than any team in baseball, and spend a ridiculous amount more than teams like the Pirates, Royals and others. The Pats though operate in a system where their economic strength does not place them on such a higher ground than the other teams. In the end, the winning is what creates the majority of the ill will towards these two franchises. After all if the Yankees did not win they would just be the Knicks (New York team that spends a ton and is a loser). What I am trying to say is that the Yankees are hated for their spending and envied for their winning. The Pats are envied for their winning, but I do not see that lightening rod issue of hate related to them like spending is with the Yankees.

Note: I am not trying to say teams like the Mets and Red Sox don't spend a ton as well. They do, but it is clear that they are still not at the level of the Yankees. That does not mean that the Mets and Sox are not hated by small market fans as well. They most definitely are, and should be. My argument was singularly focused on the Patriots and Yankees. I am proud to be a Mets fan, but I do think that the economic distribution through out MLB is unfair and at some point must be fully addressed.

• Nice to see Isiah and the Knicks vacationing in Miami.
• Just finishing Rule of the Bone by Russell Banks. Cool book by a really good author.
• http://www.nytimes.com/2007/01/23/sports/baseball/23chass.html?_r=1&ref=sports&oref=slogin
• http://www.nydailynews.com/sports/story/491066p-413626c.html
• http://www.nypost.com/seven/01232007/sports/giants/fly_like_an_eagle_giants_paul_schwartz.htm
• http://www.nypost.com/seven/01232007/sports/giants/fly_like_an_eagle_giants_paul_schwartz.htm
• http://www.newsday.com/sports/baseball/yankees/ny-spbernie235063759jan23,0,6575571.story?coll=ny-sports-headlines
• Glad to see Parcells go. I am sick of him returning to Giants Stadium coaching a visiting team. I would not be shocked if he came back, but I would not bet on it either.
• It will be interesting to see how the new Giants defensive coordinator performs. He learned under one of the best in Jim Johnson (Philly). I hope to see the Giants get to the QB more in '07, something Johnson is a master at.

STKAFI

Championship Games

NFC

Great win for Chicago and the Bears franchise. They were the most unappreciated #1 seed in recent memory. Something like 70% of bets in Vegas were against them. The quarterback played well enough and the defense played great. This is the recipe that they will need to beat the Colts. Swarm the football and force turnovers, while being able to make a couple big plays on offense.

A tough loss for New Orleans. A part of everyone was rooting for that city. No matter what though, no matter how the season ended this playoff run brought a lot to the people of that city. Not only that, but this is such a young team and there is a lot of promise for it. That has to be a good feeling for that city, to have something to look forward to. In any event, it was a fun game to watch and Chicago deserves this Super Bowl bid.

AFC

Great game. I am honestly still shocked. That is what sports does though. Whether its the Red Sox overtaking the Yankees, Bill Cowhers' Steelers going from a #6 seed to winning a Super Bowl, to the Saints making the NFC title game from 3-13 the year before. Manning had been heart-broken by the Pats before, and had lost games in the playoffs he was "supposed to win" numerous times as well. He fell behind by 18 points in the first half, but engineered his team to dominating drives in the second half. The Colts offense could not be stopped in the second half, due large in part to Manning. Not only his making plays, but his control of the pace and efficiency of the drives.

In my mind, the Pats once again though showed why they are such a great team. They lost to a better team, but they still were in position to win. They forced the Colts to win the game, they did not give it to them. This is consistently what the Pats do in the playoffs and most teams are not able to capitalize. Manning and the Colts did not let that happen. Obviously the end of yesterdays game had a couple Patriot miscues, but I do not view them as those. I felt the roughing the passer call on that last Colt drive was bogus, and the Brady pick was a pass he was trying to force considering the time situation. He admitted that himself. He was put in a situation where he has to try and make a play he would not usually look to make.

In any event this is good for the NFL. Most people did not want the Pats in the Super Bowl once again. While New Orleans would have been a great story in the Super Bowl, having Chicago there is always good for the league. They are a hallmark franchise, and bring a national fan base. The Colts have the leagues' most marketable player, and have been hyped to win it for years. This is as good of a match-up that the league could hope for.

Randoms

• I don't really have a problem with the Reggie Bush flip. I don't like the taunting before/after, but I love his exuberance.
• Thoughts on seeing Eli in the box watching his bro yesterday? I am not saying he should not support his brother, but for some reason its tough for me to see him there after not getting it done with the Giants. Any Giant fan wanna chime in on this or am I just being crazy?
• All year I have hated how the refs have called the roughing the passer penalty. We saw it once again last night. That call on the Colts last drive was so ticky-tack. I know the rule, but it makes it so tough on defensive linemen. I hope the league addresses this in the offseason.
• I know people rip Belechik for how he acts after games, but as a fan I like it. When my team losses a tough game I feel totally dejected. If you saw him after yesterdays game, it was the exact same. He gave short, bland answers to reporters' questions. I am not saying it is the most sportsmanlike thing to do, but at least you know as a fan of that team, that he puts everything into winning the game, and like many of the fans he lives and dies by the outcome.
• Same with Brady. Asked if he would watch the Super Bowl he said "probably not." As a fan, it makes you feel good.
• I thought that the Pats were good enough to win it all with Belechik, Brady, and that bruising defense. Obviously they did not, but they got two first round picks, plenty of cap space, and some holes to fill in the secondary and wide receiver position. They are not going anywhere.
• I know this is similar to what Simmons wrote on Friday, but why do people hate the Pats so much? I have only two reasons why people should. One is that they are a Boston team. The other is that your favorite team is in the Pats' division or a rival of them (Colts, Steelers). Other than that I don't see why so many people hate on the Pats....Thoughts?

STKAFI

Friday Show

NFC Championship

When you look at this match-up, all the signs point to a Saints victory. They have a dominant running game, a top QB, a crafty coach, and they appear to be this seasons' "team of destiny." With that being said, I still think the Bears are going to win this Sunday. Why? First of all I think the Bear defense is pissed off at how they continually are being written off and are going to play a tremendously physical game on Sunday. They are going to beat up the Saint skill players. In addition, the weather and the fans will be a factor for Chicago. The Saints are a dome team, and they appear to be underestimating the effect that weather could have on this game. I think that the Bears will come out with aggression and grab the momentum in the first quarter. Rex Grossman will not have to win this game for the Bears, only not lose it for them.
Bears 23 Saints 14

AFC Championship

This is also a very tough game to call. All this signs are pointing to the Colts finally getting to the Super Bowl. Their defense is finally playing well enough to win a Super Bowl, and they finally have the Patriots in the playoffs at home. I will just not allow myself to pick against the Patriots though. I know that the Patriots are going to play a smart football game and I am pretty sure that Tom Brady will play well. What I am not sure about is the big game coaching of Tony Dungy and if Peyton Manning can get Bill Bellichik out of his head. I think that this will be a wonderful game to watch and the last team with the ball will win it. Unfortunately for the Colts, it will be the Pats who will win a thriller (as usual). Interesting stat....Brady is 10-0 lifetime indoors...
Patriots 30 Colts 27

NBA Quickie

After all of the hype the past few years of the "New NBA", this is supposed to be the year. People have been hyping the small ball of the Mavericks and the run'gun of the Suns for the past three years. So far they have won nothing. This year everyone is handing the Larry O'Brien trophy to one of them. Miami is in shambles, Detriot is bickering, San Antonio has lost a step, and Kobes' Lakers have still not won a playoff round post-Shaq. This is supposed to be the year where it comes down to Phoenix and Dallas. Then again, Phoenix had the best record in the league two years ago and did not get it done. Dallas was two wins away form winning it all last year and could not get it done. We will see what happens this year. I promise you three things though. No matter how slow you think the Spurs look now, they will not go quietly in May. The Phil/Kobe Lakers learned from last year, and will be the team no one in the West wants to face (especially the Suns). The East has no chance at winning it all. There isn't a Detroit or a Miami that could make an underdog run in the Finals.

Early NBA Draft

http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2007/writers/seth_davis/01/18/hoop.thoughs/index.html
Check out the top of the last page, and what is said about Oden and Durant...

http://rumourwhores.blogspot.com/2007/01/yeast-he-can-expect-is-3-match-ban.html
Check out some of the comments on the bottom....

STKAFI

Randoms

The post is comin a little late this morning. I did not have time to write last night and this morning there was a fire alarm in my office building. Aaaaaaaaanyhoo, here is some stuff for ya..

• I did not know much about Jerry Reese before the Giants promoted him to GM, but as of now I like the move. He is a young guy, and has been in the organization for a while. I like the idea that he understands New York and the Giants history. In the same respect though, he will put his own touch on the Giants operation. I think that he will bring some new ideas and hopefully some needed innovation to the franchise.
• Interesting (and long-awaited) baseball trade went down yesterday. The Braves acquired Mike Gonzalez form the Pirates for Adam Laroche. I like the deal from both sides. The Pirates needed some help offensively, especially at first base. It is more interesting from the Braves perspective though. Much like the AL East, the NL East now has a premium on left-handed pitching, especially in the bullpen. The Mets and Phillies are stacked with left-handed hitters and switch hitters that are better from the left side (Ryan Howard, Carlos Delgado, Chase Utley, Carlos Beltran). I could also see the Braves being in a position to deal Gonzalez to the AL East though for plenty of talent. The Yankees love him and the Red Sox still need a closer..
• Recently the NBA talk has been of who is the best clutch shooter, since Gilbert Arenas has been knocking down buzzer beaters on what seems like a nightly basis. My top three guys I want the ball with the clock going down....1. Kobe Bryant 2. Gilbert Arenas 3. Steve Nash
• After all that has happened this season so far with the Knicks they still would not be in the playoffs if the season ended today. Will Isiah keep his job? Unfortunately I think so, but if they don't make the playoffs he shouldn't. Whatever, this is a waste of space.
• Why is everyone hating on the NFL playoffs after last week. Everyone is ripping the Bears in the NFC game and everyone is sick of both the Colts and Pats in the AFC. I think both will be great games, and come Monday we will be happy with the Super Bowl match-up no matter who it is. No matter what it will be better than Seattle/Shitsburgh.
• http://www.nytimes.com/2007/01/18/sports/baseball/18mets.html?_r=1&ref=sports&oref=slogin
• http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/si_blogs/scorecard/jimmys_blog/2007/01/most-unforgettable-musical.html
• Tomorrow I will have brief Title game picks. We all know the match-ups and keys, so I will have something short about each game.

STKAFI

Blink

I recently finished reading Blink by Malcolm Gladwell. It was published a couple years ago and has received a ton of notoriety since then. In a nutshell, the book analyzes a different approach to solving problems. This approach is geared towards maximizing your subconscious thoughts and not consciously over-thinking problems. According to Gladwell, our most educated solutions are very likely to be derived within a few seconds of being presented with a problem. Professionally, this type of approach can only be used with an expert in any given field. For example, my instincts towards spotting a potential mugger are much less likely to be correct than a policeman's initial subconscious in this matter. He goes on to judge this theory in many different areas, most of which relate to all of us. Obviously, you can tell that I enjoyed this book. Why is this in any way relevant to anything that I ever write about in this blog, you ask? After reading this book, it is clear to me that quarterback is a classic example of "Blink" or as Gladwell also puts it, thin slicing.

Football is known, besides the violence, for having a tremendous amount of practice and film preparation. There are hours of film study to go along with hundreds of repetitions each week to prepare for a game. The quarterback is involved in every single offensive play, thus he is often the most intense during preparation. After the players leave the huddle and a play is called it is the QBs' responsibility to look at the defense and decide if that play is appropriate or not, considering what the defense is showing. It is also the QBs' responsibility to call out to his linemen where certain blitzes may be coming from and where certain defensive players are lined up. Once the ball is snapped though, the QB has usually about three seconds to process everything from the film study, to the reps, to what he just saw in the defense, to what the defense is actually doing. He has three seconds to manufacture all of that in his head and make a play with the ball.

When a QB is drafted he is examined in every way possible. From his arm strength, to his touch, to his intelligence, to his leadership abilities. In my mind, the most important aspect of a QB is his thin-slicing ability. This is something that can only be seen on the field, in a game situation. If a player has these other attributes, it may make his thin slicing ability easier, since he can make more potential plays on the field with his arm strength or mobility, but it by no means guarantees it. That is why drafting a QB is such a difficult and imperfect science.

When you look at the QBs in the league, two stand out Tom Brady and Peyton Manning. They both have "plus" arms, show great touch, are considered extremely intelligent, are meticulous at preparation and are driven leaders. Their "blink" abilities are what put them at another level though. They are able to hike a football and process all of the information in their mind in an unconscious way where they are not thinking. While they think they are just reacting to the play, their subconscious is really processing everything and allowing them to make the right decisions.

The reason that I am bringing this topic up now is two fold. One is that these two players will be facing off this Sunday in Indianapolis. The other is that the Playoffs are the most pressure a NFL player will face and this is where thin-slicing is most important. Gladwell mentions in his book that under tremendous pressure our thin-slicing abilities can malfunction. It is tough for me to explain, but basically our heart rate can reach such a high level, that we become temporarily autistic, even for just a few seconds. In this time period our subconscious does not process decisions correctly, and we suffer as a result.

When looking at Peyton Mannings' career, one might say that he suffers from this in the postseason. In the regular season he is as cool as a cucumber and is able to "react" calmly on the field. In the postseason, he gets so riled up that his subconscious does not perform at the same high level that he is accustomed to. Tom Brady on the other hand has been legendary in the clutch and the postseason. He has led game winning drives with less than two minutes left in two Super Bowls, in addition to numerous other pressure performances. Last week though, he did not play well and made a number of poor decisions. The types of decisions that we are used to seeing Manning make in the postseason and not Brady.

I was listening to an interview with Phil Simms this week on the radio and his descriptions sounded very similar to the type of actions that Gladwell describes. Simms was asked about the pressure on a QB and if they feel it. Simms said that he never felt it and he did not think it existed. He continued by saying that throughout his career, if he threw an interception and he was asked as he got to the sideline why he threw it he would not know. It was like his his body was just reacting to the play, and not until he saw the play on film could he remember what was going on in his head and why he made the throw. The speed of the game was too quick for him to feel the pressure consciously.

I am not going to get wrapped up in his view on pressure. What does interest me though is his description of a play on the field. The quickness of it and how he reacted so fast that he could not tell you his thought process directly after the play was finished. This is exactly the type of feeling that Gladwell describes in his book. Who knows what will happen this week in Indy, and who knows why Manning and Brady both played so poorly last week? What I think, is that every player is human and can have a bad game every once in a while. I honestly feel though that in the postseason environment, Brady has an edge on Manning. Brady, even when he makes a bad play, seems in control, while Manning seems to be searching for answers. Who knows which will win this week, but for this one game, in this environment, it seems that Brady has the better chance of succeeding. In a Playoff environment, he appears to be able to thin-slice at a consistently higher level than Manning or any other QB in the league.

Again, I recommend this book. While you may not agree with it, it definitely is thought-provoking, especially for a sports fan. More specifically, the never-ending debate over who is and is not clutch. In the bigtime, playoff situation some players naturally have the correct "blink" reaction (Derek Jeter, Brady, Michael Jordan) and some continually suffer with that "temporary autism", as Gladwell puts it (Patrick Ewing, Jeff Vanderjagt, Armando Benitez, Chirs Webber). The question though, is can a player overcome this, and become "clutch"? For all of you Manning and AROD fans, you better hope so...

STKAFI

Two Links

I don't mean to totally rip Deadspin.com off, but these two links are too good, especially considering my cause of riding Tom Brady/Patriots and hating all other Boston sports. Enjoy...I dedicate the second clip to Smurph and Rambone (get my $50 ready sucka!)...

http://deadspin.com/sports/nfl/tom-brady-still-clockin-hos-228934.php

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Le8rMnL56w8&eurl=

STKAFI

Great NFL/MLK Weekend

Just a flat out super weekend for the NFL. All four games were extremely intense and entertaining. Three of the four games were decided by three points and all four games were within a touchdown in the fourth quarter. In addition, each game featured teams with different styles and was extremely unpredictable. This weekend showed the best of every aspect that the NFL has to offer. Weekends like these are why we are NFL (sports) fans. On to the individual games...

Colts/Ravens

• If I told you that the Colts would not score a TD would anyone have given them a chance?
• Peyton Manning did not play well at all, but Steve McNair played worse.
• The McNair pick on the one yard line was horrendous. In a game like this you can not have a turnover that close to the goal line. Unbelievably big play by the Indy defense as well.
• The Adam Viniateri acquisition by the Colts has already paid huge dividends. This is the kind of game that the Colts have found a way to lose in the past.
• While Manning continued his typical poor playoff performances, this game could end up being the best thing to happen to him. The Indy defense won the game for the Colts, which could allow Peyton to play with less of a burden next week. He may be more relaxed knowing his defense is playing so well behind him.

Saints/Eagles

• A very clean and efficient game. Only one turnover combined between the two teams.
• The Saints have a very underrated front four on defense.
• Both teams came to play, but the Saints running game wore the Eagles down.
• The New Orleans crowd was electric. With that being said though, the Saints have proven that they can win on the road as well. They not only beat, but killed both the Giants and Cowboys on the road this season.
• Props to Curtis.
• Great run Rambone, see you next season, with ur gimp QB back...

Bears/Seahawks

• The big question coming into the game was Rex Grossman. He played pretty well, but not great. A Bear fan has to be satisfied with his performance though. You can hope for better, but should not expect it.
• Hasselback confuses me. He is fearless, and makes big plays, but also make a lot of really stupid plays. A lot like one of Holmgrens' former QBs...
• Seattle played a real gutsy game. They were out manned, but they battled. Deep down Holmgren knows he got the most out of this injury plagued bunch.
• I am impressed by Holmgren, and I think he is very underrated as a head coach. Everyone talks about Parcells, Shanahan and others, but forgets Holmgren. He wins and always plays well in the playoffs.
• If the Bears would have lost this, the city of Chicago would have been in mourning for a long time. They needed this win bigtime.

Patriots/Chargers

• The Patriots were outplayed, but found a way to win.
• Brady did not play well, but the Chargers gave him enough chances to allow Brady to break their hearts.
• Marlon McCree made a horrific play in the fourth quarter. At 4th and 5, with 6:25 to go he picks off Brady and proceeds to fumble and give the Pats new life. He needs to either knock the ball down or fall to the ground when he picks it off. At 4th down the Chargers get the ball anyway!! His gaffe gave the Pats new life, and Brady made them pay.
• Marty Schottenheimer is a tough luck loser, but he contributed to the loss as well. There is no reason to challenge the fumble with 6:25 to go. It was clear to everyone in the stadium that it would not be overturned, and the timeout would have been key for them to have on that last drive.
• LDT played insanely well, but I don't understand how he got only eight carries in the second half. Inexplicable. The Chargers have the best player in the world on their side and they don't take advantage of it. He carved up New England whenever he got the ball, but he did not get it enough, especially on their second to last drive with the score tied. They ran it with LDT for five yards, then had two incompletions.
• How does Schottenheimer go for it on 4th and 11 in the first quarter, when he had a 47 yard field goal and a Pro Bowl kicker? That is one of the more ridiculous decisions I have seen by a coach in a long time.
• Compliments of Peter King....Bellichik is 5-1 vs #1 seeds in the postseason. Think about that...Six time he has been against the top team in the league on the road in the playoffs and he has won five of them. If that is not a direct correlation with his superior coaching, then I don't know what is.

LDT

I thought that LDT over-reacted to the Patriots celebrating after the game. While I never like a team mocking an opposing teams' celebration, it is something that happens (Numerous teams mocked the Giants "We Fly High" jumpshot, the St. Louis Cardinals chanting "Jose, Jose, Jose, Jose" after beating the Mets in the NLCS). I do not feel that the Pat should be held to a different standard either just because they are three time Champs. As we all know in the NFL, turnover is drastic and many of these players have not won a Super Bowl. In addition, after the game, the Pats did not disparage the Chargers in the media. Anyway, the boys over at Profootballtalk.com had this to say concerning LDT and the Chargers and this whole Patriots/Class issue....

CHARGERS HAVE A SHORT MEMORY
Amid complaints from running back LaDainian Tomlinson and other members of the San Diego Chargers that the New England Patriots celebrated too fervently their unlikely victory over the 14-2 Bolts on Sunday, we've been reminded of the Chargers reaction to a similarly unlikely win from a year ago.
In New England.
After thumping the Pats by the score of 41-17 and shattering the team's 21-game home winning streak, the Chargers were not exactly humble.
"That's a [butt]-whipping," said defensive coordinator Wade Phillips in an article penned by Tom Curran, who at the time wrote for the Providence Journal and who now works for NBCSports.com.
Cornerback Drayton Florence (or is it Florence Drayton?) was less tactful: "F--k New England and their team," he said, before turning to a "collection of onlookers" and adding: "Get the look of shock off your faces. Don't be shocked. We beat your [butt]."
So, you know, maybe a few of the Pats were remembering the way that the Chargers handled themselves in 2005.
And if L.T. is going to get bent out of shape because his opponents do this kind of stuff, we'd like to hear what he's been doing to persuade his teammates not to act that way, either.
Frankly, there aren't many NFL teams that can claim to be, top to bottom, the modern-day equivalent of Fred Blassie. So none of them should ever be bitching when another squad does what they've surely done themselves at some point in the not-so-distant past.

Lastly

My boy Curtis (Huge Saints fan) decided to make a youtube video leading up to the Saints game against the Eagles....enjoy...

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RPkz6-J1Qe4&eurl=

Next Week...

It will be interesting to watch. I can't wait for the Super Bowl, I mean AFC Title Game. Preveiws for both later in the week. Sorry if this synopsis is brief, but I spent the weekend in the Poconos with the GF. I watched every game, but in not the same environment that I am used to. I can say this though...he interpretations of the games are consistantly of things that I never notice...

STKAFI